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Economy in Brief
U.S. ISM Services Index Weakens in February
The ISM Composite Index of Services Activity declined to 55.3 during February...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Edge Up
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index edged up 0.5% w/w (5.4% y/y) in the week ended February 26...
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Sales of light vehicles declined 5.6% during February (-6.7% y/y) to 15.88 million units...
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue to Strengthen
The price of regular gasoline strengthened to $2.71 per gallon (11.9% y/y) in the week ended March 1...
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German and other European retail sales have been put through a sort of test of fire in the wake of the covid-19 virus arrival...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller June 23, 2020
• New single-family home sales rose last month following three consecutive months of decline.
• Sales improved in most parts of the country.
• Prices increase modestly m/m.
Sales of new single-family homes increased 16.6% during May (12.7% y/y) to 676,000 (SAAR) after falling 5.2% in April to 580,000, revised from 623,000. Sales during March plummeted to 14.5% to 612,000, revised from 619,000. May sales were 12.7% below the expansion peak of 774,000 reached in January. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected sales of 634,000 during May.
Sales in the Northeast rose 45.5% both m/m and y/y to 32,000. In the South, sales increased 15.2% to 402,000 (6.3% y/y) and in the West sales improved 29.0% to 169,000 (31.0% y//y). Sales were down, however, by one-third versus the January peak. Running counter to these gains, Midwest sales fell 6.4% (+2.8% y/y) and were 24.7% below the January peak.
The median price of a new home increased to 4.9% to $317,900 in May (1.7% y/y) while the average price of a new home improved 4.7% (-2.7% y/y) to $368,800. Home prices, which are not seasonally adjusted, have been range-bound for the past few years.
The months' supply of homes on the market declined to 5.6 in May from an elevated 6.7 months in April. The median number of months a new home stayed on the market was 3.8, the longest since April 2018 and up from 2.7 months in October 2018.
New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's USECON database, while MBA loan applications can be found in SURVEYW. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the AS1REPNA database.
U.S. New Single-Family Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 676 | 580 | 612 | 12.7 | 685 | 614 | 616 |
Northeast | 32 | 22 | 23 | 45.5 | 30 | 32 | 40 |
Midwest | 73 | 78 | 77 | 2.8 | 72 | 75 | 72 |
South | 402 | 349 | 365 | 6.3 | 400 | 347 | 341 |
West | 169 | 131 | 147 | 31.0 | 183 | 160 | 164 |
Median Price (NSA, $) | 317,900 | 303,000 | 331,800 | 1.7 | 319,267 | 323,125 | 321,633 |