Recent Updates
- US: GDP (Q1-3rd Estimate), GDP by Industry (Q1)
- Qatar: PPI (May)
- Chile: Employment (May)
- Namibia: Central Bank Survey (May)
- Turkey: Foreign Exchange Position (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Rise, but only Slightly
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications edged up 0.7% w/w...
Globally Money Supply Slows or Contracts in Real Terms
Money supply trends show that slowing is widespread across the major monetary center countries...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Deteriorates Further in June
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index weakened 4.4% (-23.4% y/y) in June...
U.S. FHFA House Prices Continued to Rise in April
The FHFA House Price Index increased 1.6% during April...
U.S. Advance Trade Deficit Narrowed Slightly in May
The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods narrowed to $104.3 billion in May...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 29, 2020
• Chicago PMI fell to lowest level since March 1982.
• ISM-Adjusted measure similarly weakened due to COVID-19.
• Lower production & new orders continued to lead decline.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell to 32.3 in May from 35.4 in April, continuing to reflect the depressing effects of the coronavirus on business around the world. A reading below 50 for this diffusion index suggests contracting activity in the Chicago area. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 36.7.
Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Chicago Business Barometer with similar methodology to the ISM Composite Index. This measure fell to 41.8 in May, the lowest reading since July 2009. During the last ten years, the Chicago ISM-Adjusted index has an 80% correlation with the national ISM Manufacturing Index, which is scheduled for release on Monday.
Of the five main indicators, production, new orders and order backlogs posted large declines. A fairly steady seventeen percent (NSA) of respondents reported higher orders and a greatly increased 73% reported declines. These declines were accompanied by a meaningful drop in the supplier delivery index suggesting quicker product deliver speeds. The inventory measure rose to the highest level since June of last year.
The employment index also improved slightly, but at 37.0 it remained down from a recent peak of 59.1 in January 2018. Just six percent of survey respondents reported a rise in hiring while 32% reported a decline.
The index of prices paid rose to 53.8 from 48.4, indicating some improvement in pricing power after a decline in April. A greater 26% of respondents reported higher prices, a measure that has moved sideways for a year.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. Summary data are contained in Haver's USECON database, with detail including the ISM-style index in the SURVEYS database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is available in AS1REPNA.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) | May | Apr | Mar | May '19 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
General Business Barometer | 32.3 | 35.4 | 47.8 | 52.8 | 51.3 | 62.4 | 60.8 |
ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer | 41.8 | 42.1 | 46.9 | 53.4 | 51.4 | 60.8 | 59.0 |
Production | 23.7 | 25.3 | 44.4 | 54.9 | 51.2 | 64.5 | 64.2 |
New Orders | 21.9 | 24.2 | 45.2 | 56.0 | 52.0 | 63.8 | 63.4 |
Order Backlogs | 26.9 | 37.3 | 40.3 | 42.6 | 46.9 | 58.0 | 55.2 |
Inventories | 52.3 | 48.2 | 34.6 | 51.0 | 48.7 | 55.4 | 54.9 |
Employment | 37.0 | 33.8 | 44.9 | 49.6 | 49.6 | 55.3 | 52.9 |
Supplier Deliveries | 74.3 | 78.9 | 65.3 | 55.5 | 55.6 | 64.8 | 59.4 |
Prices Paid | 53.8 | 48.4 | 56.7 | 56.6 | 58.5 | 73.9 | 64.0 |