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Economy in Brief
U.S. Construction Spending Unexpectedly Dips in May After Seven Straight Monthly Rises
The value of construction put-in-place ticked down 0.1% m/m (+9.7% y/y) in May...
Developed Economies Manufacturing Sectors Hit Hard in June
Among the 18 countries in the table that report manufacturing PMI data in June, only four show m/m improvements...
U.S. Income Gained, Spending Slowed in May
Personal income growth remained solid while household spending slowed in May...
U.S. Chicago Business Barometer Falls Back in June to the Lowest Level since Aug. '20
The ISM-Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell to 56.0...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 25 declined by 2,000 to 231,000...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Gerald D. Cohen May 29, 2020
• Trade deficit widens to $69.7 billion.
• A 25.2% drop in exports more than offsets the 14.3% decline in imports.
• All categories of exports and imports decreased in April.
The advance estimate of the U.S. trade deficit in goods grew to $69.67 billion in April from $64.98 in March (the March figures as well as the month-on-month and year-on-year comparisons below are based on revised data from the monthly International Trade Report; updated April figures will be released next week). The Action Economics Forecast Survey anticipated a $62.7 billion deficit.
Exports of goods plummeted 25.2% in April (-29.9% y/y), the largest month-on-month drop in since October 1971. All major categories of exports – which is the only data available in the Advance Trade report – fell, led by a record 65.9% collapse in motor vehicle exports (-70.8% y/y); data goes back to 1986. As we noted in our Industrial Production commentary, motor vehicle production plunged 71.7% in April and the auto sector utilized a record low 15.4% of its capacity. Capital goods, which vies with industrial supplies to be our largest export category fell 23.9% (-27.9% y/y). Industrial supplies were down 21.6% (-24.1% y/y), though it's not clear how much of that contraction reflected the collapse in oil prices.
Imports of goods fell 14.3% (-20.6% y/y) in April the fourth consecutive monthly decline. All categories were down, with auto imports plummeting 52.2% (-57.0% y/y). Imports of capital goods, which are an indicator of capital spending, fell 11.0% (-14.2%) while nonfood consumer goods, the second largest import category decreased 6.9% (-20.5% y/y).
The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in AS1REPNA.
Advance U.S. Foreign Trade in Goods (Customs Value $) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Trade Deficit ($ bil.) | -69.67 | -64.98 | -58.85 | -71.80 (04/19) |
-853.23 | -874.81 | -793.41 |
Exports (% Chg) | -25.2 | -7.4 | 1.5 | -29.9 | -1.2 | 7.7 | 6.5 |
Imports (% Chg) | -14.3 | -2.1 | -2.6 | -20.6 | -1.6 | 8.6 | 7.0 |
Note: Current month is based on Advance Trade data; Previous months reflect revised data from International Trade release.