• Effects of COVID-19 outbreak increasingly restrains economy.

• Contraction in activity is broad-based.

The National Activity Index (CFNAI) weakened to -16.74 during April from -4.97 in March, revised from -4.19. It was a record negative reading. The three-month moving average of the index fell m/m to -7.22, also a record decline. During the last 20 years, there has been a 71% correlation between the Chicago index and the q/q change in real GDP.

Each of the four components of the index remained sharply negative last month. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours series declined to -9.06 indicating extreme labor market pressure. The Production & Income figure also fell to a record low of -5.63. The Personal Consumption & Housing gauge held steady at a record low of -0.81. The Sales, Orders and Inventories index slipped to -1.24, down from the previous record low reached in March.

The diffusion index of the CFNAI, which measures the breadth of component change, fell to -0.55, its lowest reading since June 2009.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

These figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.