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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Edge Up
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index edged up 0.5% w/w (5.4% y/y) in the week ended February 26...
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Weaken in February
Sales of light vehicles declined 5.6% during February (-6.7% y/y) to 15.88 million units...
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue to Strengthen
The price of regular gasoline strengthened to $2.71 per gallon (11.9% y/y) in the week ended March 1...
Post Covid-19 Turbulence Rocks and Weakens German Retail Sales
German and other European retail sales have been put through a sort of test of fire in the wake of the covid-19 virus arrival...
ISM Manufacturing Index Improves in February as Prices Continue to Strengthen
Factory sector activity recovered last month following moderate weakening in January...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 26, 2020
• Effects of COVID-19 outbreak increasingly restrains economy.
• Contraction in activity is broad-based.
The National Activity Index (CFNAI) weakened to -16.74 during April from -4.97 in March, revised from -4.19. It was a record negative reading. The three-month moving average of the index fell m/m to -7.22, also a record decline. During the last 20 years, there has been a 71% correlation between the Chicago index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Each of the four components of the index remained sharply negative last month. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours series declined to -9.06 indicating extreme labor market pressure. The Production & Income figure also fell to a record low of -5.63. The Personal Consumption & Housing gauge held steady at a record low of -0.81. The Sales, Orders and Inventories index slipped to -1.24, down from the previous record low reached in March.
The diffusion index of the CFNAI, which measures the breadth of component change, fell to -0.55, its lowest reading since June 2009.
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
These figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr '19 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
National Activity Index (+ = Growth Above Trend) | -16.74 | -4.97 | 0.05 | -0.69 | -0.15 | 0.15 | 0.17 |
Production & Income | -5.63 | -2.31 | -0.02 | -0.44 | -0.11 | 0.09 | 0.08 |
Employment, Unemployment & Hours | -9.06 | -1.06 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.07 |
Personal Consumption & Housing | -0.81 | -0.80 | -0.02 | -0.03 | -0.02 | -0.05 | -0.04 |
Sales, Orders & Inventories | -1.24 | -0.81 | 0.03 | -0.26 | -0.04 | 0.01 | 0.05 |
3-Month Moving Average | -7.22 | -1.69 | -0.12 | -0.37 | -- | -- | -- |
Diffusion Index | -0.55 | -0.32 | -0.09 | -0.25 | -0.06 | 0.21 | 0.19 |