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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller May 19, 2020
• Housing sector continues under pressure due to coronavirus shutdowns.
• Starts decline to five-year low.
• Falling permits suggest more weakness to come.
New residential home building continues to weaken dramatically. Housing starts declined 30.2% (-29.7% y/y) during April to 891,000 (AR) from 1.276 million in March, revised from 1.216 million. Total starts are 43.9% below their January peak. The latest level was the lowest level of starts since February 2015. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 930,000 starts for April.
Starts of single-family starts declined 25.4% (-24.8% y/y) to 650,000 last month following a 15.8% March shortfall. It also was a roughly five-year low. Multi-family starts fell 40.5% (-40.2% y/y) to 241,000, the third straight month of sharp decline.
A 20.8% decline (-19.2% y/y) in building permits to 1.074 million units followed a 5.7% March drop. Permits to build single-family homes fell 24.3% (-16.4% y/y) to 669,000, five-year low. Permits to build multi-family dwellings fell 14.2% (-23.6% y/y).
By region, last month's weakness in starts reflected a 43.6% decline (-66.4% y/y) in the Northeast to 44,000. It followed similar declines in each of the prior two months. Starts in the West weakened 43.4% (-43.2% y/y) to 184,000 and added to the 14.5% decline in March. In the Midwest, housing starts fell 14.9% (-20.1% y/y) to 131,000, the third decline in four months. In the South, starts decreased 26.0% (-17.9% y/y) to 532,000 after falling 17.3% in March.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Coronavirus and CARES Act from Fed Chairman Jerome H. Powell is available here.
Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 891 | 1,276 | 1,567 | -29.7 | 1,298 | 1,250 | 1,209 |
Single-Family | 650 | 871 | 1,034 | -24.8 | 894 | 873 | 852 |
Multi-Family | 241 | 405 | 533 | -40.2 | 404 | 377 | 357 |
Starts By Region | |||||||
Northeast | 44 | 78 | 121 | -66.4 | 116 | 111 | 111 |
Midwest | 131 | 154 | 197 | -20.1 | 170 | 171 | 181 |
South | 532 | 719 | 869 | -17.9 | 689 | 631 | 603 |
West | 184 | 325 | 380 | -43.2 | 322 | 337 | 314 |
Building Permits | 1,074 | 1,356 | 1,438 | -19.2 | 1,350 | 1,330 | 1,286 |