The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) fell 0.8% during the four weeks ended Friday. The price index has moved irregularly sideways for the last six weeks but remained 17.7% lower than twelve months earlier.

Prices in the metals group improved 1.0% during the  last four weeks as the cost of copper scrap rose 3.7% and zinc prices increased 2.1% (-31.5% y/y). Steel scrap prices edged 0.9% higher and aluminum prices gained 0.4%. To the downside, lead prices fell 4.1% (-14.0% y/y) in the last four weeks. Also improving by 0.7% were prices in the textile group. Cotton prices surged 4.5% but the cost of burlap held steady (1.7% y/y).

Continuing to work lower were prices in the crude oil & benzene group which fell 5.6% in the last four weeks as WTI crude oil prices weakened to $22.74 per barrel, down from a high of $61.92 in the first week of January. Prices remained near the lowest level since early-2002. Prices of the petro-chemical benzene fell 5.4% in the last four weeks (-56.5% y/y). Excluding crude oil, industrial commodity prices eased 0.1% during the last four weeks and were off 13.6% over the last year. Prices in the miscellaneous group declined 1.3% as hide prices fell by one-third (-43.9% y/y). Plywood prices continued to hold steady but were down 7.9% y/y. Framing lumber prices rose 14.4% in the last four weeks and the price of natural rubber improved 1.9%.

A struggling U.S. factory sector holds little promise for improvement in industrial materials prices. Industrial output plummeted 6.3% in March (-6.6% y/y) as the effects of the coronavirus started to be felt. During the last ten years, there has been a 57% correlation between the y/y change in industrial commodity prices and the y/y change in factory sector production.

Commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases. The NABE forecast is in the SURVEYS database.