Recent Updates
- Cyprus: Industrial Turnover Index (Oct)
- Malta: CPI (Dec)
- Luxembourg: Employment & Unemployment (Dec)
- Slovenia: Building Permits (Dec)
- UK: PPI, CPI (Dec), SPPI (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Macro Expectations Hold to the High Ground
In January, the ZEW index paints a mixed and somewhat uneven view of its survey universe...
U.S. Housing Affordability Improves During November
The NAR reported that its Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index rose 0.7% (-0.7% y/y)...
U.S. Retail Sales Continue to Fall During December as COVID-19 Cases Increase
Total retail sales declined 0.7% (+2.9% y/y) during December...
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller May 6, 2020
• Monthly decline sets record.
• All sectors hit hard.
• Leisure & hospitality businesses pace the decline.
The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private payrolls during April fell 20.236 million (-14.8% y/y) following a 149,000 drop in March, revised from -27,000. The latest figure compared to a 22.000 million decline expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The ADP report is based on data through April 12th.
Large payrolls were notably hard hit and declined 8.963 million (-12.0% y/y) after rising 21,000 in March. Small payrolls followed and declined 6.005 million (-18.4% y/y) after falling 146,000 in March. Medium-sized payrolls were off 5.269 million (-16.7% y/y) after falling 24,000.
Within industry sectors, employment amongst goods-producing firms weakened 4.229 million (-20.1% y/y) last month after a 38,000 fall. Construction sector payrolls were down 2.447 million last month and were off by roughly one-third y/y. Factory sector employment declined 1.674 million (-13.4% y/y). Employment in the natural resource & mining sector weakened 78,000 (-12.8% y/y), continuing its long pattern of decline.
Employment growth in the private service sector collapsed 16.007 million (-13.7% y/y) after declining 111,000 in March. An 8.607 million decline (-50.7% y/y) in the leisure & hospitality sector paced the weakness as it came after an 80,000 March drop. Trade, transportation & utilities payrolls, the largest sector, posted a 3.440 million decline (-11.9% y/y). Education & health services jobs fell 971,000 (-1.9% y/y) after a long period of monthly gains. Financial activities payrolls weakened 216,000 (-1.2% y/y). Employment in the professional & business services sector fell 1.167 million (-4.0% y/y). Information sector payrolls declined 309,000 (-11.3% y/y).
The Automatic Data Processing Research Institute survey covers 411,000 companies and includes about one-fifth of U.S. private payroll employment. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. The ADP data cover private sector employment only.
The ADP National Employment Report data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Historical figures date back to 2001 for private employment and the industry breakdown, and 2005 for the business size breakout. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | -20,236 | -149 | 147 | -14.8% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.7% |
Small Payroll (1-49) | -6,005 | -146 | 57 | -18.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
Medium Payroll (50-499) | -5,269 | -24 | 57 | -16.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.9 |
Large Payroll (>500) | -8,963 | 21 | 33 | -12.0 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.0 |
Goods-Producing | -4,229 | -38 | 5 | -20.1 | 1.6 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
Construction | -2,477 | -35 | 14 | -32.4 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 |
Manufacturing | -1,674 | 0 | -6 | -13.4 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
Service-Producing | -16,007 | -111 | 142 | -13.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 |