Recent Updates
- Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (Mar, Apr)
- US: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey by State (Mar)
- US: New Residential Construction (Apr)
- Canada: CPI (Apr)
- Japan: NCI Economic Activity Index (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller April 30, 2020
• Chicago PMI fell to the lowest level since March 2009.
• ISM-Adjusted measure similarly weakened due to the coronavirus.
• Lower orders and production led this month's decline.
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer fell to 35.4 in April from 47.8 in March, reflecting the depressing effects of the coronavirus on business around the world. A reading below 50 for this diffusion index suggests contracting activity in the Chicago area. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 37.7.
Haver Analytics constructs an ISM-Adjusted Chicago Business Barometer with similar methodology to the ISM Composite Index. This measure fell to 42.1 in April, the lowest reading since July 2009. The Chicago ISM-Adjusted index has a 78% correlation with the national ISM Manufacturing Index, which is scheduled for release tomorrow.
Of the five main indicators, production and new orders posted the largest declines. A lessened 15% (NSA) of respondents reported higher orders and a greatly increased 64% reported a decline. These were offset by a surge in the supplier delivery measure. It indicated slower delivery speeds and stress in the supply chain. The inventories measure also surged and reversed the prior month's decline.
The employment index plunged to 33.8, the lowest level since June 2009. Just two percent of survey respondents reported a rise in hiring while an increased 33% reported a decline.
The index of prices paid fell to 48.4 indicating that, on balance, lower prices were realized by most survey respondents for the first time in four years.
The MNI Chicago Report is produced by MNI in partnership with ISM-Chicago. The survey covers a sample of over 200 purchasing professionals in the Chicago area with a monthly response rate of about 50%. Summary data are contained in Haver's USECON database, with detail including the ISM-style index in the SURVEYS database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is available in AS1REPNA.
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (%, SA) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr '19 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
General Business Barometer | 35.4 | 47.8 | 49.0 | 53.6 | 51.3 | 62.4 | 60.8 |
ISM-Adjusted General Business Barometer | 42.1 | 46.9 | 50.8 | 52.9 | 51.4 | 60.8 | 59.0 |
Production | 25.3 | 44.4 | 51.0 | 51.6 | 51.2 | 64.5 | 64.2 |
New Orders | 24.2 | 45.2 | 49.1 | 55.1 | 52.0 | 63.8 | 63.4 |
Order Backlogs | 37.3 | 40.3 | 38.2 | 49.8 | 46.9 | 58.0 | 55.2 |
Inventories | 48.2 | 34.6 | 48.1 | 50.4 | 48.7 | 55.4 | 54.9 |
Employment | 33.8 | 44.9 | 44.5 | 51.2 | 49.6 | 55.3 | 52.9 |
Supplier Deliveries | 78.9 | 65.3 | 61.3 | 56.4 | 55.6 | 64.8 | 59.4 |
Prices Paid | 48.4 | 56.7 | 52.9 | 51.8 | 58.5 | 73.9 | 64.0 |