Recent Updates
- US: Wholesale Trade (Feb), Producer Prices (Mar)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Total PMIs Gain Traction in March
The PMI readings for March show improvement again...
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Bounces Back in February
Consumer credit outstanding surged $27.6 billion during February...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to Record during February
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $71.1 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 28, 2020
• Appraisal of current conditions plunges but expectations rise.
• Buying plans falter.
• All age groups exhibit less confidence.
The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence declined 26.9% (-32.7% y/y) during April to a level of 86.9 following a 10.4% March drop, revised from -9.5%. It was the lowest level of confidence since June 2014. A decline to an index level of 90.0 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Over the last 20 years, there has been a 67% correlation between the level of confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending.
The index of current conditions weakened 54.2% (-54.8% y/y) to the lowest level since December 2013. A greatly lessened 20.8% of respondents felt that business conditions were good, down from 39.2% in March. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 33.6% of respondents, up from 13.8% in March.
Despite the decline in current conditions, the index of expected business conditions in six months rose 8.1%, after falling 19.7% in March. Forty percent felt that would business conditions would improve, up from 18.7% in March. Forty- one percent of respondents felt that there would be more jobs in six months, up from 16.9% last month, but a greatly lessened 16.7% felt that income would increase.
Expectations for the inflation rate in twelve months surged to 5.3% this month from 4.5% in March. It was the highest level since October 2014. Interest rates were expected to move higher in 12 months by 36.1% of respondents, half the high in 2018. Just 1.5% planned to buy a new home, but that remained up from 0.9% in December. A greatly lessened 2.8% planned to buy a new car while 45.1% planned to buy a major appliance, down from 55.0% in February.
By age group, the index of confidence amongst those under age 35 eroded 26.5% (-35.0% y/y). For respondents aged 35-54, confidence fell 25.2% (-33.5% y/y) and for those over age 55, it weakened 29.1% (-31.8% y/y).
The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON, and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA.
Conference Board (SA, % Chg.) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Confidence Index | -26.9 | -10.4 | 1.7 | -32.7 | -1.4 | 8.0 | 20.7 |
Present Situation | -54.2 | -1.5 | -2.6 | -54.8 | 3.1 | 13.8 | 20.3 |
Expectations | 8.1 | -19.7 | 6.6 | -8.7 | -6.0 | 2.6 | 21.1 |
Consumer Confidence By Age Group | |||||||
Under 35 Years | -26.5 | -6.7 | 3.7 | -35.0 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 6.4 |
Aged 35-54 Years | -25.2 | -11.0 | 6.4 | -33.5 | -1.1 | 7.0 | 16.4 |
Over 55 Years | -29.1 | -10.8 | -3.5 | -31.8 | -1.9 | 11.8 | 33.5 |