Recent Updates
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Jan-prelim), Mfg & Trade Inventories & Sales (Nov), IP & Capacity Utilization, Adv Retail Sales, Producer Prices (Dec)
- US: Industrial Production Detail (Dec)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Dec)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
U.S. Business Inventories Accumulate during November as Sales Weaken
Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y)...
The EMU Trade Surplus Stabilizes
Both exports and imports have been regaining momentum...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 27, 2020
• COVID-19 depresses business.
• Outlook worsens.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for April that the Current General Business Activity Index weakened to a record low of -73.7 from -70.0 in March. The decline continued to mirror reports of extreme economic weakness by other regional Federal Reserve banks in recent weeks. The figures are diffusion indexes with readings above zero indicating positive growth. The survey dates back to 2004.
The production, shipments, new orders and wages indexes each were increasingly negative this month. The delivery times measure registered the quickest product delivery speeds in over ten years. The employment measure remained below zero with only three percent of respondents reporting an increase in hiring while 24% indicated a decline.
Pricing power weakened sharply during April to the lowest level since May 2009. Only three percent of respondents raised prices while 28% lowered prices.
Readings for expected business conditions in six months were more negative. Indexes roughly equaled their record lows, led by readings below zero for orders, shipments, production and employment. A reading for expected prices is not available in this survey, but expected growth in wages & benefits deteriorated to a record low.
Capital spending plans also fell to a near-record low.
Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all respondents report rising activity, the index will register 100. The index will register -100 when all respondents report a decrease. The index will be zero when the number of respondents reporting an increase equals the number reporting a decrease. Items may not add up to 100% because of rounding. Data for the Texas Manufacturing Outlook can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (SA, % Balance) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr '19 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current General Business Activity Index | -73.7 | -70.0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | -0.7 | 25.8 | 20.6 |
Production | -55.3 | -35.3 | 16.4 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 21.4 | 20.2 |
Growth Rate of New Orders | -62.2 | -44.9 | 3.6 | 5.2 | -0.8 | 14.8 | 11.4 |
Employment | -21.2 | -23.0 | -0.9 | 4.6 | 9.4 | 20.0 | 11.4 |
Wages & Benefits | -2.7 | 5.5 | 22.6 | 28.2 | 24.0 | 29.7 | 22.2 |
Prices Received for Finished Goods | -24.6 | -9.2 | -0.1 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 17.6 | 12.7 |
General Business Activity Index Expected in Six Months | -42.1 | -39.5 | 18.0 | 18.4 | 7.2 | 31.6 | 34.5 |
Production | -13.1 | -18.7 | 35.0 | 41.3 | 36.1 | 48.5 | 46.8 |
Growth Rate of New Orders | -16.1 | -20.7 | 30.0 | 27.5 | 25.6 | 35.9 | 37.7 |
Employment | -7.1 | -16.7 | 20.4 | 33.4 | 26.7 | 37.6 | -35.2 |
Wages & Benefits | -0.6 | 0.7 | 39.7 | 38.8s | 39.9 | 50.4 | 43.4 |