• The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago indicated that the economy entered a downturn in the wake of the COVID-19 outbreak.

The National Activity Index (CFNAI) declined to -4.19 during March from 0.06 in February, revised from 0.16. The three-month moving average of the index fell m/m to -1.47, its weakest level since June 2009. During the last 20 years, there has been a 71% correlation between the Chicago index and the q/q change in real GDP.

Each of the four component series of the index turned negative last month. The Production & Income series fell to a record low of -2.72. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours series declined to -1.23, the weakest reading since April 2009. The Personal Consumption & Housing gauge fell to -0.19, the lowest level since December 2018. The Sales, Orders and Inventories of -0.05 compared to -0.06 in February.

The diffusion index of the CFNAI, which measures the breadth of component change, fell sharply to -0.32, its lowest reading since May 2016.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

These figures are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.

Do Stay-at-Home Orders Cause People to Stay at Home? Effects of Stay-at-Home Orders on Consumer Behavior from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is available here.