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Economy in Brief

State Coincident Indexes in February
by Charles Steindel  April 10, 2020

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank has issued estimates of state coincident indexes for February. This is essentially the last comprehensive snapshot of the distribution of activity prior to the impact of the pandemic. A look at the medium and longer-term developments seems fairly off the point. In the short-term, Arizona and Maine experienced declines from January to February (the fall in Arizona was so modest that in the Bank's report it is chalked up as "unchanged"); Maine was the only state to experience a three-month drop. The coincident indexes depend heavily on labor market data, with some smoothing of current developments. One suspects that bad as the March figures are likely to be, they could well be revised down when the raw information for April gets factored in.

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