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Economy in Brief
UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Lowest Reading since 1996
(when the GFK survey began; also lowest reading 'ever')
Of these 13 readings eight of them declined on the month in May three of them improved and two of them were unchanged...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue to Fall in April as Houses Become Less Affordable
The combination of soaring home prices across the nation and rising interest rates is making homes less affordable...
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
CBI Gauge in the UK Continues to Be Upbeat
The global economy has a lot of challenges...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller April 10, 2020
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that for the first six months of FY 2020, the federal government budget deficit rose to $743.59 billion, up 7.6% y/y. During March alone, the federal government ran a $119.13 billion budget deficit compared to a $146.95 billion deficit twelve months earlier. A $150 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
So far this fiscal year, federal government receipts rose 6.4% y/y. Personal income tax revenues grew 6.3% y/y. Corporate tax receipts improved by roughly one-quarter y/y so far in FY 2020. Social insurance taxes grew a steady 5.4% y/y this fiscal year. Customs duties, which include tariffs, increased 12.9% y/y so far this fiscal year.
Total federal government outlays have risen 6.8% y/y so far in FY 2020. Outlays on national defense programs grew 7.1%. Medicare outlays growth eased to 6.5% y/y so far this fiscal year, while outlays on health programs grew 5.2% y/y after a 6.1% y/y gain in FY 2019. Spending on Social Security increased a steady 5.3% during the first six months of FY 2020. Spending on income security programs decelerated to 1.4% so far in FY 2020. Interest payments rose a lessened 4.8% y/y.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts as well as CBO forecasts are contained in USECON; detailed data can be found in the GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
United States Government Finance | March | FY'19 | FY'18 | FY'17 | FY'16 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Budget Balance (Billions) | -- | $-119.13 | $-984.39 | $-779.00 | $-665.80 | $-664.80 |
Fiscal YTD | -- | $-743.59 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | -4.6% | -3.8% | -3.5% | -3.2% |
% of Total | ||||||
Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2020, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
Individual Income Taxes | 50 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.3 |
Corporate Income Taxes | 7 | 23.9 | 5.4 | -22.4 | -2.0 | -11.4 |
Social Insurance Taxes | 36 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 4.7 |
Customs Duties | 2 | 12.9 | 71.4 | 19.4 | -0.8 | -0.6 |
Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2020, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.5 |
National Defense | 15 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 0.1 | 6.1 | 0.7 |
Health | 13 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 9.8 | -1.9 | 6.2 |
Medicare | 15 | 6.5 | 10.6 | -1.4 | 0.6 | 8.7 |
Income Security | 12 | 1.4 | 4.0 | -1.6 | -2.1 | 1.0 |
Social Security | 23 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 8.4 | 11.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 9.3 |
Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 3 | 6.7 | 43.8 | -34.0 | 31.6 | -10.2 |
Interest | 8 | 4.8 | 15.7 | 23.6 | 9.1 | 7.8 |