The CPI fell during March by the largest amount since January 2015. Consumer prices were off 0.4% (+1.5% y/y) following two consecutive 0.1% increases. Expectations had been for a 0.3% decline in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The CPI excluding food & energy slipped 0.1% (+2.1% y/y) last month after two months of 0.2% increase. A 0.1% rise had been expected.

Lower energy prices held back the rise in the CPI as they declined 5.8% both m/m and y/y. It was the third consecutive monthly fall. Gasoline prices dropped 10.5% (-10.2% y/y) and fuel oil prices fell 13.7% (-20.1% y/y). Natural gas prices were off 1.4% (-2.9% y/y) while the cost of electricity eased 0.2% (+0.2% y/y).

Goods prices excluding food & energy moved 0.3% lower (-0.2% y/y) following a 0.2% rise. The decline was led by a 2.0% fall (-1.6% y/y) in apparel prices. Recreation goods prices declined 0.8% (-1.1% y/y). New vehicle prices weakened 0.4% both m/m and y/y while household furnishings prices fell 0.3% (-0.4% y/y). Medical care goods prices eased slightly (+1.3% y/y), off for the third straight month. Offsetting these declines was a 0.8% increase (0.1% y/y) in used car & truck prices as well as a 0.4% rise (-0.3% y/y) in appliance costs.

Services prices were little changed (2.8% y/y). Recreation services prices rose 0.6% (2.5% y/y). Medical care service prices improved 0.5% (5.5% y/y) following three straight 0.3% increases. Education & tuition prices edged 0.1% higher (2.1% y/y) for a second straight month. Shelter costs held steady (3.0% y/y) but the owners' equivalent rent of primary residences gained 0.3% (3.2% y/y). Hotel prices fell 6.8% (-6.4% y/y). The cost of public transportation weakened 8.5% (-7.2% y/y).

Food prices rose 0.3% (1.9% y/y). Nonalcoholic beverage prices increased 0.9% (1.4% y/y). Fresh fruit & vegetable prices improved 0.8% (-1.9% y/y) and dairy prices increased 0.6% (3.7% y/y). Cereal & bakery prices improved 0.1% both m/m and y/y. Offsetting these increases was a 0.3% decline (+3.3% y/y) in meat prices. Egg prices fell 0.8% (-4.0% y/y).

The Consumer Price Index data can be found in Haver's USECON database with additional detail in CPIDATA. The Action Economics survey figure is in the AS1REPNA database.