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Economy in Brief
U.S. Leading Indicators Rebounded in March
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators rebounded in March, rising 1.3% m/m (+7.9% y/y)...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Increases in March
The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index increased to 1.71 during March...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Strengthens in April
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to a record 31 in April...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Fall Again to a New Pandemic-Period Low
Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased again in the week ending April 17, reaching 547,000...
U.K. CBI Optimism Speaks Volumes
The U.K. CBI survey saw its order component backtrack in April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 7, 2020
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that total the job openings rate slipped to 4.3% during February from 4.4% in January. The rate is openings as a percent of total employment plus openings. These figures remained below the 4.8% record reached in January 2019. The hiring rate held steady at 3.9% in February and remained near it expansion high of 4.0% reached last July. The layoff and discharge rate rose to 1.2% in February, up from 1.1% which equaled the lowest point on record. The quit rate was unchanged at 2.3% and remained slightly below the highest rate of the expansion.
On the last business day of February, the job openings level totaled 6.882 million, down 2.4% y/y. The number of job openings fell 2.1% m/m (-3.8% y/y) for total private but edged 0.1% higher (11.1% y/y) for government. Job openings fell 9.1% y/y in manufacturing but rose 3.7% y/y in health & human services. The number of job openings fell 7.4% y/y in leisure & hospitality and declined 9.0% y/y in professional & business services.
The private-sector job openings rate declined to 4.3% from a downwardly revised 4.4% in January. The record rate is 5.1% reached in January 2019. The construction sector's job openings rate of 3.5% compared to 5.4% at its peak in April of last year. The rate in manufacturing was 3.2%. On the high side, the rate in leisure & hospitality held at 5.2% and was steady at 5.6% in professional & business services. The government sector job openings rate was unchanged at a record 3.3%.
In February, the level of hiring rose 3.4% to 5.896 million with the hiring rate steady at 3.9%. Private sector hiring rose 3.2% y/y while government hiring jumped 6.4% y/y. Hiring in construction rose 14.6% y/y, but was unchanged y/y in the factory sector. Leisure & hospitality hiring rose 1.9% y/y but it fell 7.6% y/y in professional & business services.
The total separations rate declined to a two-year low of 3.6% as the level of separations declined 2.0% y/y. The separations rate in the private sector fell to 4.0% and was 1.5% in government. The rate was 6.1% in leisure & hospitality, the lowest since December 2017. Professional & business realized a 4.8% rate, the lowest since December 2014. In education & health services the rate was 2.8%.
The layoff & discharge rate in the private sector rose to 1.3% while it was stable at 0.4% in government. The rate of 2.7% in construction compared to 0.9% in manufacturing. The 1.0% rate in the information sector was near the 0.6% rate in finance. The professional & business services layoff & discharge rate fell to 1.6%, the lowest since April 2018.
The quits rate held steady at an elevated 2.3%. The private sector quits rate of 2.5% compared to 0.8% in government. The level of job quits in the private sector fell 1.5% y/y but rose 3.8% y/y in government. In manufacturing, the level of job quits declined 7.7% y/y but it rose by one-quarter y/y in finance. The number of quit in professional & business services declined 2.2% y/y and fell 9.7% y/y in leisure & hospitality.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) dates to December 2000; the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
News Sentiment in the Time of COVID-19 from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb'19 | Feb'18 | Feb'17 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Job Openings, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 3.9 |
Total (000s) | 6,882 | 6,963 | 6,552 | 7,048 | 6,575 | 5,872 |
Hires, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 |
Total (000s) | 5,896 | 5,925 | 5,927 | 5,703 | 5,669 | 5,366 |
Layoffs & Discharges, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Total (000s) | 1,755 | 1,741 | 1,893 | 1,791 | 1,781 | 1,698 |
Quits, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
Total (000s) | 3,497 | 3,574 | 3,528 | 3,541 | 3,175 | 3,081 |