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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Improves During November
The NAR reported that its Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index rose 0.7% (-0.7% y/y)...
U.S. Retail Sales Continue to Fall During December as COVID-19 Cases Increase
Total retail sales declined 0.7% (+2.9% y/y) during December...
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller April 2, 2020
Factory orders fell slightly (+0.1% y/y) during February following a 0.5% January decline. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.2% gain. Durable goods orders jumped 1.2% (-0.0% y/y) following a 0.1% improvement. Machinery orders eased 0.6% (-2.6% y/y) but electrical machinery orders jumped 1.3% (3.2% y/y). Orders for computers & electronic products fell 0.7% (-0.2% y/y). Orders for nondurable products, which equal shipments, declined 1.2% (+0.3% y/y) as the value of petroleum refinery shipments fell 4.1% (-2.8% y/y), down sharply for the second straight month due to lower prices. Basic chemical shipments fell 0.4% (+1.8% y/y) but apparel shipments declined 2.4% (-0.9% y/y).
Shipments of durable goods rose 0.9% (-2.4% y/y) as transportation shipments increased 2.9% (-5.2% y/y). Shipments outside of the transportation sector fell 0.8% (-0.2% y/y). Machinery shipments were off 1.3% (-3.4% y/y) while electrical equipment & appliance shipments improved 1.6% (2.7% y/y). Transportation sector shipments strengthened 2.9% (-5.2% y/y) as nondefense aircraft shipments rebounded 17.5%. They remained down by one third y/y. Shipments of computers & electronic products rose 0.3% (-0.6% y/y).
Unfilled orders for manufactured products improved 0.1% (-1.7% y/y) after holding steady for two consecutive months. Transportation sector backlogs rose 0.2% (-2.3% y/y). Excluding transportation, unfilled orders eased 0.2% (-0.6% y/y). Machinery backlogs rose 0.1% (-3.5% y/y) while computer & electronic equipment order backlogs fell 0.1% (+0.6% y/y). Electronic equipment & appliance order backlogs rose 0.2% (6.7% y/y).
Factory sector inventories declined 0.4% (+1.6% y/y). Transportation equipment inventories rose 0.4% (13.0% y/y) but auto inventories fell 2.8% (+6.9% y/y). Excluding the transportation sector, inventories fell 0.6% (-1.1% y/y). Electrical equipment inventories were off 0.2% (+1.1% y/y) while computer & electronic product inventories slipped 0.8% (+0.2% y/y). Nondurable product inventories fell 0.9% (-1.5% y/y) as the value of petroleum refinery stockpiles dropped 6.1% (-4.8% y/y). Apparel inventories eased 0.6% (-3.3% y/y) and food product inventories rose slightly (1.0% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders | -0.0 | -0.5 | 1.9 | 0.1 | -0.5 | 7.3 | 5.7 |
Shipments | -0.2 | -0.6 | 0.5 | -1.1 | 0.7 | 6.9 | 5.0 |
Unfilled Orders | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -1.7 | -2.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 |
Inventories | -0.4 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 4.5 |