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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Improves During November
The NAR reported that its Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index rose 0.7% (-0.7% y/y)...
U.S. Retail Sales Continue to Fall During December as COVID-19 Cases Increase
Total retail sales declined 0.7% (+2.9% y/y) during December...
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Sandy Batten April 1, 2020
Led by a sharp increase in refinancing applications, the Mortgage Bankers Association's Mortgage Loan Application Index rebounded in the week ended March 27, rising 15.3% w/w (73.7% y/y) after having fallen 29.4% w/w in the previous week and 8.4% w/w in the week ended March 13. Purchase applications remained weak (-10.8% w/w and -23.5% y/y) as the first signs of the devastating hit to employment from the spreading coronavirus likely caused potential homebuyers to pull back. In contrast, with mortgage interest rates falling to series lows for some rates, applications for refinancing jumped up 25.5% w/w (167.7% y/y) after having declined 40.7% in the previous two weeks. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 75.9% of total applications from 69.3% the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity decreased to 3.2% of total applications.
The effective interest rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell markedly to 3.12% in the week ended March 27 from 3.38% the previous week. The effective interest rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage slumped to 3.57%, the lowest rate in the history of the series, from 3.93%. In contrast, the effective rate on a 30-year Jumbo mortgage only edged down 2 basis points to 3.93% after having risen 31 basis points in the previous two weeks. The rate on the 5-year adjustable rate mortgage fell to 3.34% from 3.48%.
The average mortgage loan size fell to $323,700 in the week ended March 27 from $337,000 the previous week. The average loan size of refinancings declined to $322,800 from $337,500. The average loan size for purchases fell to $326,500 from $336,000.
Applications for fixed-rate loans were up 85.8% y/y, while applications for adjustable rate loans fell 41.9% y/y.
The survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for each index is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
MBA Mortgage Applications (%, SA) | 03/27/20 | 03/20/20 | 03/13/20 | Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Market Index | 15.3 | -29.4 | -8.4 | 73.7 | 32.4 | -10.4 | -17.8 |
Purchase | -10.8 | -14.6 | -0.9 | -23.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 5.6 |
Refinancing | 25.5 | -33.8 | -10.4 | 167.7 | 71.1 | -24.3 | -34.0 |
15-Year Effective Mortgage Interest Rate (%) | 3.12 | 3.38 | 3.20 | 3.88 | 3.71 | 4.35 | 3.59 |
30-Year Effective Mortgage Interest Rate (%) | 3.57 | 3.93 | 3.85 | 4.49 | 4.34 | 4.94 | 4.32 |