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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Improves During November
The NAR reported that its Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index rose 0.7% (-0.7% y/y)...
U.S. Retail Sales Continue to Fall During December as COVID-19 Cases Increase
Total retail sales declined 0.7% (+2.9% y/y) during December...
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 30, 2020
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales increased 2.4% in February (9.4% y/y) to the highest level since February 2017. Lower mortgage rates helped fuel the increase with the 15-year fixed-rate declining to 3.00%, the lowest level since late-2016.
The number of signed contracts in February increased in every region of the country. Pending home sales increased 4.6% (10.8% y/y) in the West and 4.5% (14.9% y/y) in the Midwest. Sales in the Northeast sales rose 2.8% (5.9% y/y) while in the South they edged 0.1% (7.1% y/y) higher.
The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for an existing home is signed, analogous to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity anticipates the level of closed existing home sales in the following two months. The series dates back to 2001, and the data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database. Mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the SURVEYW database.
Pending Home Sales (SA, % chg) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 2.4 | 5.3 | -4.3 | 9.4 | 1.1 | -4.1 | -0.8 |
Northeast | 2.8 | 2.2 | -2.7 | 5.9 | 0.8 | -5.0 | 0.6 |
Midwest | 4.5 | 7.4 | -3.4 | 14.9 | -0.3 | -4.6 | -2.5 |
South | 0.1 | 8.7 | -3.8 | 7.1 | 1.8 | -1.9 | 0.6 |
West | 4.6 | -0.9 | -7.1 | 10.8 | 1.3 | -7.3 | -2.5 |