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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Improves During November
The NAR reported that its Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index rose 0.7% (-0.7% y/y)...
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Total retail sales declined 0.7% (+2.9% y/y) during December...
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The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 27, 2020
Personal income increased 0.6% (4.0% y/y) in February as it did in January. A 0.4% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Wages & salaries improved 0.5% (3.3% y/y) for a second month, reflecting strength in the employment situation before the coronavirus outbreak. Proprietors income surged 2.8% (7.8% y/y) following a 0.9% rise. Rental incomes rose a steady 0.4% (4.2% y/y) while receipts on assets eased 0.2% (+2.5% y/y) due to a 0.5% decline (+1.6% y/y) in personal interest income. Dividend income rose 0.2% (3.6% y/y). Transfer receipts improved 0.3% (5.4% y/y) after strengthening 1.6% in January.
Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.2% (4.9% y/y) in February, the same as in January. A 0.3% gain had been expected. In constant dollars, total spending edged 0.1% higher (3.0% y/y) for a third consecutive month. Real durable goods spending declined 0.7% (+7.8% y/y) during February after a 0.5% rise. Spending on motor vehicles declined 1.0% (+8.4% y/y) after edging lower for two months. Recreational goods & vehicles outlays fell 0.8% (+10.8% y/y) following a 2.1% rise. Spending on furniture & household equipment eased 0.7% (+5.4% y/y) after a 1.0% gain. Real nondurable goods buying improved 0.1% last month (3.1% y/y), the same as in January. Apparel spending dropped 1.0% (+3.5% y/y) after falling 1.5%. Real gasoline outlays rose a steady 0.7% (-1.2% y/y). Food & beverage purchases eased 0.3% (+2.9% y/y), off for the third straight month. Real spending on services improved 0.2% (2.3% y/y) after holding steady in January. The rise was bolstered by a 0.7% surge (1.1% y/y) in spending on housing & utilities after declining in three of the prior four months. Health care spending rose 0.2% (2.9% y/y) after no change while spending at restaurants & hotels weakened 0.9% (+2.0% y/y) after a 0.1% rise.
Disposable personal income rose 0.5% (4.0% y/y) last month after an unrevised 0.6% gain. Adjusted for price inflation, take-home pay increased 0.4% (2.2% y/y) after rising 0.5% in January.
Last month's strength in income relative to spending caused the personal savings rate to rise to 8.2%, the highest level since March of last year. The level of personal saving declined 3.2% y/y last month.
The PCE chain price index increased 0.1% in February (1.8% y/y) for the second consecutive month. The price index excluding food & energy rose a steady 0.2% (1.8% y/y). Motor vehicle prices edged 0.1% higher (-0.3% y/y) and home furnishings & appliance prices rose 0.7% (-0.7% y/y). Apparel costs strengthened 0.6% (-1.7% y/y) for a second straight month. Gasoline & oil prices fell 3.4% (+5.6% y/y). Services costs improved a steady 0.2% (2.5% y/y). Housing & utilities prices rose 0.2% (3.0% y/y) but health care prices eased 0.1% (+1.9% y/y). Energy prices were off 2.1% (+2.8% y/y) after a 0.7% decline. Food prices rose 0.4% (0.8% y/y) after increasing 0.3%.
The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REP NA database
Personal Income & Outlays (%) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Personal Income | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 4.7 |
Wages & Salaries | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 4.7 |
Disposable Personal Income | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.7 |
Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 4.4 |
Personal Saving Rate | 8.2 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 8.8 (Feb '19) | 7.9 | 7.7 | 7.0 |
PCE Chain Price Index | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
Less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
Real Disposable Income | 0.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.9 |
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2.6 |