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Economy in Brief
Decline in Refinancing Drag Down U.S. Mortgage Applications
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 1.9% w/w (+56.2% y/y) in the weekend January 15...
U.S. Energy Prices Continue to Rise
The price of regular gasoline rose to $2.38 per gallon (-6.2% y/y)...
Macro Expectations Hold to the High Ground
In January, the ZEW index paints a mixed and somewhat uneven view of its survey universe...
U.S. Housing Affordability Improves During November
The NAR reported that its Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index rose 0.7% (-0.7% y/y)...
U.S. Retail Sales Continue to Fall During December as COVID-19 Cases Increase
Total retail sales declined 0.7% (+2.9% y/y) during December...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 25, 2020
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its Mortgage Loan Application Index fell 29.4% (+78.6% y/y) during the week ending March 20 after an 8.4% decline in the prior week. The decline occurred as refinancings fell by roughly one-third (+195.4% y/y) after a 10.4% drop, and purchase applications weakened 14.6% (-11.3% y/y) following the prior week's 0.9% slip.
The effective interest rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rose sharply to 3.38% from 3.20% in the week ended March 13. It was the highest rate since early-January but remained well below the peak of 4.71% early in November 2018. The effective interest rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage also rose to 3.93%, the highest rate since mid-January. The effective rate on a 30-year Jumbo mortgage increased to 3.95%, and the rate on the 5-year adjustable rate mortgage rose to 3.48%.
The average mortgage loan size fell to $337,000 last week (-2.8% y/y). The average loan size of refinancings declined to $337,500 (-6.9% y/y). The average loan size for purchases fell to $336,000 and was unchanged y/y.
Applications for fixed-rate loans were up a lessened 81.9% y/y, while applications for adjustable rate loans moved up 39.8% y/y.
The survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for each index is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
MBA Mortgage Applications (%, SA) | 03/20/20 | 03/13/20 | 03/06/20 | Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Market Index | -29.4 | -8.4 | 55.4 | 78.6 | 32.4 | -10.4 | -17.8 |
Purchase | -14.6 | -0.9 | 5.6 | -11.3 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 5.6 |
Refinancing | -33.8 | -10.4 | 78.6 | 195.4 | 71.1 | -24.3 | -34.0 |
15-Year Effective Mortgage Interest Rate (%) | 3.38 | 3.20 | 2.97 | 4.07 | 3.71 | 4.35 | 3.59 |
30-Year Effective Mortgage Interest Rate (%) | 3.93 | 3.85 | 3.55 | 4.67 | 4.34 | 4.94 | 4.32 |