Recent Updates
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Economy in Brief
U.S. PPI Posts Broad-Based Strength in March
The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.0% (4.2% y/y) during March...
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Total PMIs Gain Traction in March
The PMI readings for March show improvement again...
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Bounces Back in February
Consumer credit outstanding surged $27.6 billion during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally
Monetary Policy at a Crossroad: Policymakers Need to Break Promise of Easy Money to Avoid Boom-Bust
State Coincident Indexes in January
Data Surprises, Markets and COVID
by Gerald D. Cohen March 19, 2020
• Current account deficit narrowed to $109.8 billion, led by a decrease in the goods deficit.
• Balance on services and income roughly unchanged.
The U.S. current account deficit narrowed to $109.8 billion during Q4'19 from an upwardly-revised $125.4 bil. in Q3'19 (was $124.1 bil.). The Action Economics Forecast Survey anticipated a $109 bil. deficit. As a percent of GDP, the deficit declined to 2.0% from an unrevised 2.3% in Q3, and a six-and-a-half year high 2.8% in Q4'2018. This is the smallest deficit as a share of GDP since Q3'2017.
The smaller deficit last quarter was the result of a $18.1 bil. improvement in the goods deficit, with the services surplus growing $0.5 bil., and income deteriorating by $3.0 bil. Goods imports fell more than exports, -3.3% versus -0.6% (-5.7% and -1.7% year-on-year respectively). Four out of the seven major categories of goods trade improved, led by $10.0 and $5.9 bil. gains in the consumer goods and industrial supplies balances. Meanwhile, the food deficit increased by $1.7 bil.
Services exports grew 1.3% while imports rose 1.6% (3.5% and 3.7% respectively). Four of the major services categories improved while five deteriorated.
The surplus on primary income increased to a record high $67.3 bil., though as a share of GDP it has hovered around 0.3% since 2012. Despite higher interest rates in the U.S. versus much of the rest of the world, the investment income balance rose to a record $70.8 bil. -- it has also been range-bound around 0.3% of GDP since 2012. The deficit on secondary income increased to a record $37.3 bil.
Balance of Payments data are in Haver's USINT database, with summaries available in USECON. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
US Balance of Payments SA | Q4'19 | Q3'19 | Q2'19 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current Account Balance ($ Billion) | -109.8 | -125.4 | -126.3 | -498.4 | -491.0 | -439.6 |
Deficit % of GDP | -2.0 | -2.3 | -2.4 | -2.3 | -2.4 | -2.3 |
Balance on Goods ($ Billion) | -202.8 | -220.9 | -224.5 | -866.2 | -887.3 | -805.2 |
Exports (% Chg) | -0.6 | -0.2 | -1.1 | -1.3 | 7.8 | 6.6 |
Imports (% Chg) | -3.3 | -0.7 | 0.3 | -1.7 | 8.6 | 6.9 |
Balance on Services ($ Billion) | 62.9 | 62.5 | 64.1 | 249.8 | 259.7 | 255.1 |
Exports (% Chg) | 1.3 | -0.5 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 5.3 |
Imports (% Chg) | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 6.3 |
Balance on Primary Income ($ Billion) | 67.3 | 65.9 | 66.8 | 257.0 | 254.0 | 225.8 |
Balance on Secondary Income ($ Billion) | -37.3 | -32.9 | -32.6 | -138.9 | -117.3 | -115.3 |