Recent Updates
- Japan: Japan: CPI, Government Bond Trading Volume by Category of Investors (Apr)
- New Zealand: Overseas Merchandise Trade (Apr)
- UK: Consumer Confidence Barometer (May)
- UK Regional: Regional Consumer Confidence Barometer (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
U.S. Housing Starts Dip in April but Remain Elevated
The pattern of housing construction activity seems to be shifting toward multifamily...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller March 17, 2020
Total business inventories slipped an expected 0.1% (+1.1% y/y) during January following an unrevised 0.1% December gain. The anticipated figure is from the Informa Global Markets survey. Business sales increased 0.6% (+2.1% y/y) following a 0.1% improvement. The rise in sales relative to the inventory decline lowered the inventory-to-sales ratio to 1.38, its lowest point since March of last year.
Retail inventories held steady (0.3% y/y) in January after falling for two months. Motor vehicle dealers' inventories declined 0.6% in January (-2.2% y/y), down for the fourth straight month. Nonauto inventories rose 0.3% (1.7% y/y) after holding steady in December. Inventories of furniture & home furnishings rose 0.5% (-2.6% y/y) following two months of decline. Clothing inventories were off 0.2% (-2.0% y/y), down for six straight months. General merchandise store inventories rose 0.4% (-1.4% y/y) but department store inventories increased 0.7% (-6.3% y/y), the first increase in four months. Wholesale inventories fell 0.4% (+0.4% y/y) after a 0.3% decline. Factory sector inventories eased 0.1% (+2.5% y/y) after a 0.4% strengthening.
Sales at retail stores (not including food services) strengthened 0.6% (4.7% y/y) after easing 0.1% in December. Excluding auto dealers, retail sales improved 0.5% (4.1% y/y) after rising 0.4%. Wholesale sector sales surged 1.6% (2.2% y/y), the largest rise since last March. Shipments from the factory sector declined 0.5% (-0.4% y/y) and reversed December's increase.
The inventory-to-sales ratio in the retail sector declined to 1.42, the lowest level since November 2014. The ratio for retailers excluding auto dealers held steady at 1.18, down from the March 2016 high of 1.29. For merchant wholesalers, the I/S ratio fell to 1.33, a ten-month low. Conversely, the factory sector I/S ratio was steady at 1.40, the highest level since November 2016.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
Manufacturing & Trade | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Inventories (% chg) | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 5.1 | 3.4 |
Retail | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.9 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 2.3 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.3 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
Merchant Wholesalers | -0.4 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 7.3 | 3.3 |
Manufacturing | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
Business Sales (% chg) | |||||||
Total | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 6.1 | 5.4 |
Retail | 0.6 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicle | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.8 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.6 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 |
Manufacturing | -0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 6.9 | 5.0 |
I/S Ratio | |||||||
Total | 1.38 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.36 | 1.38 |
Retail | 1.42 | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.48 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.47 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1.21 | 1.19 | 1.20 | 1.24 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.33 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.29 | 1.30 |
Manufacturing | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.35 | 1.37 |