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Economy in Brief
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps in January
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Factory Sector Business Conditions Index jumped to January to 26.5...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Ease, but Are Still High
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 900,000 in the week ended January 16...
French Surveys Improve Despite Ongoing Virus Issues
The spread of the virus in Franc is still untamed...
U.S. Home Builder Sentiment Slips in January
The Composite Housing Market Index from the NAHB-Wells Fargo declined 3.5% m/m (+10.7% y/y) in January...
Decline in Refinancing Drags Down U.S. Mortgage Applications
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 1.9% w/w (+56.2% y/y) in the weekend January 15...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 17, 2020
Total business inventories slipped an expected 0.1% (+1.1% y/y) during January following an unrevised 0.1% December gain. The anticipated figure is from the Informa Global Markets survey. Business sales increased 0.6% (+2.1% y/y) following a 0.1% improvement. The rise in sales relative to the inventory decline lowered the inventory-to-sales ratio to 1.38, its lowest point since March of last year.
Retail inventories held steady (0.3% y/y) in January after falling for two months. Motor vehicle dealers' inventories declined 0.6% in January (-2.2% y/y), down for the fourth straight month. Nonauto inventories rose 0.3% (1.7% y/y) after holding steady in December. Inventories of furniture & home furnishings rose 0.5% (-2.6% y/y) following two months of decline. Clothing inventories were off 0.2% (-2.0% y/y), down for six straight months. General merchandise store inventories rose 0.4% (-1.4% y/y) but department store inventories increased 0.7% (-6.3% y/y), the first increase in four months. Wholesale inventories fell 0.4% (+0.4% y/y) after a 0.3% decline. Factory sector inventories eased 0.1% (+2.5% y/y) after a 0.4% strengthening.
Sales at retail stores (not including food services) strengthened 0.6% (4.7% y/y) after easing 0.1% in December. Excluding auto dealers, retail sales improved 0.5% (4.1% y/y) after rising 0.4%. Wholesale sector sales surged 1.6% (2.2% y/y), the largest rise since last March. Shipments from the factory sector declined 0.5% (-0.4% y/y) and reversed December's increase.
The inventory-to-sales ratio in the retail sector declined to 1.42, the lowest level since November 2014. The ratio for retailers excluding auto dealers held steady at 1.18, down from the March 2016 high of 1.29. For merchant wholesalers, the I/S ratio fell to 1.33, a ten-month low. Conversely, the factory sector I/S ratio was steady at 1.40, the highest level since November 2016.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
Manufacturing & Trade | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Inventories (% chg) | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 5.1 | 3.4 |
Retail | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.9 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 2.3 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.3 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
Merchant Wholesalers | -0.4 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 7.3 | 3.3 |
Manufacturing | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
Business Sales (% chg) | |||||||
Total | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 6.1 | 5.4 |
Retail | 0.6 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicle | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.8 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.6 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 |
Manufacturing | -0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 6.9 | 5.0 |
I/S Ratio | |||||||
Total | 1.38 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.36 | 1.38 |
Retail | 1.42 | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.48 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.47 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1.21 | 1.19 | 1.20 | 1.24 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.33 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.29 | 1.30 |
Manufacturing | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.35 | 1.37 |