The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $235.34 billion budget deficit during February compared to a $233.98 billion deficit twelve months earlier. A $239.3 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. For the first five months of this fiscal year, the budget deficit rose to $624.52 billion, a 14.8% increase from $544.23 billion one year earlier.

So far this fiscal year, federal government receipts rose 6.9% y/y. Personal income tax revenues grew an accelerated 7.1% y/y in FY 2020, the quickest growth since the summer of 2018. Corporate tax receipts improved by one-quarter y/y so far in FY 2020. Social insurance taxes grew 5.4% y/y this fiscal year and customs duties, which include tariffs, jumped by 16.3% y/y.

In FY 2020, total federal government outlays have risen 9.2% y/y. Outlays on national defense programs grew 7.3%. Growth in Medicare outlays accelerated to 18.7% y/y so far this fiscal year, while outlays on health programs grew 7.3% y/y in FY 2020 after a 6.1% y/y gain in FY 2019. Spending on Social Security increased a steady 5.4% during the first five months of FY 2020. Spending on income security programs grew 6.2% so far in FY 2020. Interest payments rose a faster 5.3% y/y.

Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts as well as CBO forecasts are contained in USECON; detailed data can be found in the GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.