Recent Updates

  • Korea: International Reserves (Jun)
  • Ireland: Public Finance (Jun-Press)
  • Belgium: Collective Wage Agreements (Q2)
  • US: Mfrs' Shipments Inventories & Orders (May), Employment
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. Government Budget Deficit Deepens
by Tom Moeller  March 11, 2020

The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $235.34 billion budget deficit during February compared to a $233.98 billion deficit twelve months earlier. A $239.3 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. For the first five months of this fiscal year, the budget deficit rose to $624.52 billion, a 14.8% increase from $544.23 billion one year earlier.

So far this fiscal year, federal government receipts rose 6.9% y/y. Personal income tax revenues grew an accelerated 7.1% y/y in FY 2020, the quickest growth since the summer of 2018. Corporate tax receipts improved by one-quarter y/y so far in FY 2020. Social insurance taxes grew 5.4% y/y this fiscal year and customs duties, which include tariffs, jumped by 16.3% y/y.

In FY 2020, total federal government outlays have risen 9.2% y/y. Outlays on national defense programs grew 7.3%. Growth in Medicare outlays accelerated to 18.7% y/y so far this fiscal year, while outlays on health programs grew 7.3% y/y in FY 2020 after a 6.1% y/y gain in FY 2019. Spending on Social Security increased a steady 5.4% during the first five months of FY 2020. Spending on income security programs grew 6.2% so far in FY 2020. Interest payments rose a faster 5.3% y/y.

Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts as well as CBO forecasts are contained in USECON; detailed data can be found in the GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.

United States Government Finance February FY'19 FY'18 FY'17 FY'16
Budget Balance (Billions) -- $-235.34 $-984.39 $-779.00 $-665.80 $-664.80
Fiscal YTD -- $-624.52 -- -- -- --
  As a percent of GDP -- -- -4.6% -3.8% -3.5% -3.2%
% of Total
Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2020, Y/Y % Change) 100 6.9 4.0 0.4 1.5 0.6
  Individual Income Taxes 50 7.1 2.0 6.1 2.7 0.3
  Corporate Income Taxes 7 24.8 5.4 -22.4 -2.0 -11.4
  Social Insurance Taxes 36 5.4 6.2 0.8 4.2 4.7
  Customs Duties 2 16.3 71.4 19.4 -0.8 -0.6
Net Outlays  (Fiscal Year YTD 2020, Y/Y % Change) 100 9.2 8.2 3.2 3.3 4.5
  National Defense 15 7.3 8.8 0.1 6.1 0.7
  Health 13 5.5 6.1 9.8 -1.9 6.2
  Medicare 15 18.7 10.6 -1.4 0.6 8.7
  Income Security 12 6.2 4.0 -1.6 -2.1 1.0
  Social Security 23 5.4 5.7 4.5 3.1 3.2
  Veterans Benefits & Services 4 17.4 11.8 1.3 1.2 9.3
  Education, Training, Employment & Social Services 3 7.0 43.8 -34.0 31.6 -10.2
  Interest 8 5.3 15.7 23.6 9.1 7.8
close
large image