Recent Updates
- France: Business Survey in Industry (Q1), Services Survey, Bi-monthly Survey of Wholesaling (Jan)
- South Africa: Wholetrade Sales (Nov)
- Spain: Industry Turnover (Nov)
- Spain Regional: Harmonized Business Confidence Index (Q1)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Decline in Refinancing Drags Down U.S. Mortgage Applications
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 1.9% w/w (+56.2% y/y) in the weekend January 15...
Euro Area Inflation Persists in Negative Territory
Euro area inflation is negative on a year-over-year basis for five months in a row...
U.S. Energy Prices Continue to Rise
The price of regular gasoline rose to $2.38 per gallon (-6.2% y/y)...
Macro Expectations Hold to the High Ground
In January, the ZEW index paints a mixed and somewhat uneven view of its survey universe...
U.S. Housing Affordability Improves During November
The NAR reported that its Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index rose 0.7% (-0.7% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller March 11, 2020
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $235.34 billion budget deficit during February compared to a $233.98 billion deficit twelve months earlier. A $239.3 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. For the first five months of this fiscal year, the budget deficit rose to $624.52 billion, a 14.8% increase from $544.23 billion one year earlier.
So far this fiscal year, federal government receipts rose 6.9% y/y. Personal income tax revenues grew an accelerated 7.1% y/y in FY 2020, the quickest growth since the summer of 2018. Corporate tax receipts improved by one-quarter y/y so far in FY 2020. Social insurance taxes grew 5.4% y/y this fiscal year and customs duties, which include tariffs, jumped by 16.3% y/y.
In FY 2020, total federal government outlays have risen 9.2% y/y. Outlays on national defense programs grew 7.3%. Growth in Medicare outlays accelerated to 18.7% y/y so far this fiscal year, while outlays on health programs grew 7.3% y/y in FY 2020 after a 6.1% y/y gain in FY 2019. Spending on Social Security increased a steady 5.4% during the first five months of FY 2020. Spending on income security programs grew 6.2% so far in FY 2020. Interest payments rose a faster 5.3% y/y.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts as well as CBO forecasts are contained in USECON; detailed data can be found in the GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
United States Government Finance | February | FY'19 | FY'18 | FY'17 | FY'16 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Budget Balance (Billions) | -- | $-235.34 | $-984.39 | $-779.00 | $-665.80 | $-664.80 |
Fiscal YTD | -- | $-624.52 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | -4.6% | -3.8% | -3.5% | -3.2% |
% of Total | ||||||
Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2020, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
Individual Income Taxes | 50 | 7.1 | 2.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.3 |
Corporate Income Taxes | 7 | 24.8 | 5.4 | -22.4 | -2.0 | -11.4 |
Social Insurance Taxes | 36 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 4.7 |
Customs Duties | 2 | 16.3 | 71.4 | 19.4 | -0.8 | -0.6 |
Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2020, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.5 |
National Defense | 15 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 0.1 | 6.1 | 0.7 |
Health | 13 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 9.8 | -1.9 | 6.2 |
Medicare | 15 | 18.7 | 10.6 | -1.4 | 0.6 | 8.7 |
Income Security | 12 | 6.2 | 4.0 | -1.6 | -2.1 | 1.0 |
Social Security | 23 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 17.4 | 11.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 9.3 |
Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 3 | 7.0 | 43.8 | -34.0 | 31.6 | -10.2 |
Interest | 8 | 5.3 | 15.7 | 23.6 | 9.1 | 7.8 |