Recent Updates
- US: Chicago Fed Survey of Business Conditions, Survey of Consumer Expectations (Mar)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. PPI Posts Broad-Based Strength in March
The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.0% (4.2% y/y) during March...
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Total PMIs Gain Traction in March
The PMI readings for March show improvement again...
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Bounces Back in February
Consumer credit outstanding surged $27.6 billion during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally
Monetary Policy at a Crossroad: Policymakers Need to Break Promise of Easy Money to Avoid Boom-Bust
State Coincident Indexes in January
Data Surprises, Markets and COVID
by Tom Moeller March 11, 2020
The Consumer Price Index edged 0.1% (2.3% y/y) higher during February for the second consecutive month. These gains followed two months of 0.2% increase. Expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey were for no change in the index level. The CPI excluding food & energy rose an expected 0.2% (2.4% y/y) last month, the same as in January.
A 2.0% decline (+2.8% y/y) in energy prices held back the rise in the CPI, following a 0.7% drop. Gasoline prices declined 3.4% (+5.6% y/y) and fuel oil prices fell 8.5% (-5.9% y/y). Natural gas prices eased 0.9% (-2.0% y/y) while the cost of electricity eased 0.1% (+0.6% y/y).
Goods prices excluding food & energy strengthened 0.2% (-0.0% y/y), the first increase in six months. The gain was led by a 0.6% rise in education & communications goods (-5.2% y/y) prices. Apparel prices rose 0.4% (-0.9% y/y) as did the cost of used vehicles (-1.3% y/y) . New vehicle prices edged 0.1% higher (0.4% y/y). Furniture costs rose 0.1% (-0.2% y/y) while appliance prices were unchanged (-1.2% y/y). Medical care goods prices eased 0.6% (+1.8% y/y) for a second straight month and recreation goods prices slipped 0.1% (-0.4% y/y).
Services prices rose 0.2% (3.1% y/y). Medical care service prices improved 0.3% (5.3% y/y) for the third straight month. Shelter costs rose 0.3% (3.3% y/y) as the owners equivalent rent of primary residences gained 0.2% (3.3% y/y). Education & communication prices improved 0.1% (2.1% y/y). Recreation services prices declined 0.5% (+2.3% y/y).
Food prices rose 0.4% (1.8% y/y). Meat prices increased 0.3% (3.7% y/y), while dairy product prices strengthened 1.2% (3.6% y/y). Cereal & bakery product prices increased 0.5% (0.2% y/y) while fruit & vegetable prices held steady (-1.6% y/y). Egg prices declined 0.8% (-4.0% y/y) while nonalcoholic beverage prices rose 0.5% (0.4% y/y).
The Consumer Price Index data can be found in Haver's USECON database with additional detail in CPIDATA. The Action Economics survey figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers (% chg) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
Total less Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
Goods less Food & Energy | 0.2 | -0.0 | -0.0 | -0.0 | 0.2 | -0.2 | -0.7 |
Services less Energy | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.7 |
Food | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.9 |
Energy | -2.0 | -0.7 | 1.6 | 2.8 | -2.1 | 7.5 | 7.9 |