Recent Updates
- Japan: Japan: CPI, Government Bond Trading Volume by Category of Investors (Apr)
- New Zealand: Overseas Merchandise Trade, Trade by Country by Commodity (Apr)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
U.S. Housing Starts Dip in April but Remain Elevated
The pattern of housing construction activity seems to be shifting toward multifamily...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Sandy Batten March 6, 2020
• The trade deficit in goods and services narrowed to $45.3 billion in January from $48.6 billion in December.
• Exports of goods and services slipped 0.4% m/m while imports fell 1.6% m/m.
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services narrowed to $45.34 billion in January from a downwardly revised $48.61 billion in December (originally $48.88 billion). A $47.1 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports slipped 0.4% m/m (1.1% y/y) after a 0.9% increase in December; imports slumped 1.6% m/m (-2.4% y/y) after a 2.6% m/m jump in December.
The trade deficit in goods narrowed $2.6 billion to $67.0 billion in January, and the services surplus widened $0.6 billion to $21.7 billion. The real (chain 2012$) trade deficit in goods narrowed $2.3 billion to $77.7 billion, auguring a contribution to Q1 GDP from trade.
Exports of goods fell 1.0% m/m (-0.9 y/y) in January, reversing their 1.0% m/m gain in December. The decline was concentrated in the "other goods" category (-13.8% m/m) but exports of capital goods (-2.2% m/m) and industrial supplies (-2.1% m/m) also exhibited meaningful declines. Exports of food rose 5.0% m/m and exports of autos jumped up 6.9% m/m, but failed to completely reverse their 7.7% m/m drop in December. Exports of services rose 0.7% m/m in January.
Imports of goods declined 1.9% m/m (-3.7% y/y) in January after a 3.1% m/m rise in December. Again, weakness in the "other goods" category (-12.7% m/m) was a major factor behind the overall January decline, but weakness was relatively widespread. Imports of industrial supplies slumped 5.4% m/m; auto imports fell 2.3% m/m; capital goods imports declined 1.1% m/m. In contrast, imports of food rose a solid 4.9% m/m. Imports of services fell 0.2% m/m in January.
The goods trade deficit with China narrowed markedly to $23.7 billion in January from $25.7 billion in December. This was the smallest deficit with China since April 2011. U.S. exports to China rose 3.3% m/m while imports fell 5.5% m/m, the eighth consecutive monthly decline. The trade deficit with the European Union narrowed to $13.5 billion in January from $14.0 billion with exports to the EU rising 4.2% m/m while imports from the EU increased 1.6% m/m. The trade deficit with Japan widened to $5.3 billion from $4.4 billion as exports to Japan slumped 15.9% m/m while imports from Japan slid 1.9% m/m.
The international trade data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the USINT database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is carried in AS1REPNA.
Foreign Trade in Goods & Services (Current $) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
U.S. Trade Deficit ($ bil.) | 45.34 | 48.61 | 43.79 | 53.82 (01/19) |
616.76 | 627.68 | 550.12 |
Exports of Goods & Services (% Chg) | -0.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 1.1 | -0.1 | 6.3 | 6.2 |
Imports of Goods & Services (% Chg) | -1.6 | 2.6 | -1.0 | -2.4 | -0.4 | 7.8 | 6.8 |
Petroleum (% Chg) | -7.8 | 17.5 | -2.6 | 6.8 | -13.9 | 20.8 | 27.2 |
Nonpetroleum Goods (% Chg) | -1.4 | 2.0 | -1.2 | -4.4 | -0.5 | 7.5 | 5.5 |