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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller February 28, 2020
Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.2% (4.5% y/y) during January following a 0.4% December gain, revised from 0.3%. A 0.3% January gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. In constant dollars, spending edged 0.1% higher (2.7% y/y) for a second consecutive month. Real durable goods spending increased 0.5% (7.3% y/y) during January after a 0.1% rise. Spending on motor vehicles rebounded 1.5% (9.3% y/y) after a 0.2% dip. Recreational goods & vehicles outlays rose 0.9% (10.3% y/y) following an easing of 0.3%. Spending on furniture & household equipment slipped 0.1% (+3.3% y/y) for a second straight month. Real nondurable goods buying weakened 0.2% last month (+2.1% y/y) after a 0.1% improvement. Apparel spending dropped 2.2% (+2.1% y/y) after a 0.7% rise. Real gasoline outlays held roughly steady (-2.2% y/y) following two months of decline. Real spending on services improved 0.1% (2.3% y/y) for a second straight month. The rise was held back by a 0.3% fall (+0.7% y/y) in spending on housing & utilities, off for the third month in the last four. Health care spending held steady (2.9% y/y) after rising 0.3% while spending at restaurants & hotels increased 0.5% (3.7% y/y) after a 1.1% jump.
Personal income strengthened 0.6% (4.0% y/y) after a 0.1% December gain, revised from 0.2%. A 0.3% rise was expected. Wages & salaries improved 0.5% (3.7% y/y) after edging 0.1% higher. Proprietors income rose 0.6% (4.5% y/y) following a 1.4% decline. Rental incomes rose 0.5% (4.4% y/y) after two straight 0.6% increases, and receipts on assets gained 0.4% (2.9% y/y) due to a 1.1% rise (4.1% y/y) in personal dividend income. Transfer receipts strengthened 1.6% (5.6% y/y) after holding steady in December.
Disposable personal income rose 0.6% (4.0% y/y) last month after edging 0.1% higher, revised from 0.2%. Adjusted for price inflation, take-home pay strengthened 0.5% (2.2% y/y) after slipping 0.1% in December.
Last month's strength in income relative to the gain in spending caused the personal savings rate to rise to 7.9% in January and recouped the prior month's decline. The level of personal saving declined 0.2% y/y last month.
The PCE chain price index increased 0.1% (1.7% y/y) after a 0.3% strengthening. The price index excluding food & energy also inched up 0.1% (1.6% y/y) after a 0.2% rise. Energy prices fell 0.7% (+5.6% y/y) after a 1.7% gain. Food prices rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) after dipping 0.1%.
The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REP NA database
Personal Income & Outlays (%) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Personal Income | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 4.7 |
Wages & Salaries | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 4.7 |
Disposable Personal Income | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 4.7 |
Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 4.4 |
Personal Saving Rate | 7.9 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.3 (Jan '19) | 7.9 | 7.7 | 7.0 |
PCE Chain Price Index | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
Less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
Real Disposable Income | 0.5 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.9 |
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2.6 |