Recent Updates
- Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (Mar, Apr)
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- US: New Residential Construction (Apr)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Tom Moeller February 27, 2020
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that its index of regional manufacturing business activity rose to 5 in February following January's improvement to -1. This indicates renewed expansion in factory sector activity. The index of expectations in six months rose to 16 and added to the prior month's gain.
The ISM-Adjusted Index increased to 52.7 (NSA) in February. It was the first reading above the break-even level of 50 following seven straight months below 50.
The current condition components of the survey exhibited mixed performance with new orders, shipments and production increasing. The employment index, however, returned to negative territory. The export measure turned positive after eight straight negative numbers. The employee workweek measure remained negative for the fourth straight month.
On the inflation front, prices received for finished products rose for the first time in three months. Raw materials prices, however, increased at a slower rate.
The index measuring expectations in six months rose with a gain in new orders, recovering declines in the prior two months. The expected employment measure held steady and production dipped. Expected export orders surged to the highest level in six months.
Expected finished product prices rose sharply but remained down y/y. Expected raw materials prices moved up slightly but were down y/y.
The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines. The December survey included 93 responses from plants in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming and northern New Mexico and was conducted in the period from December 11-16, 2019. Data for the Kansas City Fed Survey can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Kansas City Federal Reserve Manufacturing Survey (SA) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb'19 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conditions Versus One Month Ago (% Balance) | 5 | -1 | -5 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 14 |
ISM-Adjusted Composite Index (NSA) | 52.7 | 48.3 | 43.4 | 48.5 | 50.0 | 58.9 | 56.7 |
New Orders Volume | 8 | -2 | -13 | -11 | -3 | 17 | 17 |
Number of Employees | -4 | 4 | -7 | 7 | -1 | 17 | 15 |
Production | 8 | -4 | -3 | -2 | 2 | 19 | 17 |
Prices Received for Finished Product | 9 | -3 | -2 | 16 | 7 | 22 | 7 |
Expected Conditions in Six Months | 16 | 14 | 9 | 14 | 12 | 28 | 26 |
New Orders Volume | 21 | 9 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 35 | 35 |
Number of Employees | 20 | 20 | 9 | 25 | 15 | 33 | 31 |
Production | 21 | 23 | 14 | 20 | 19 | 40 | 40 |
Prices Received for Finished Product | 28 | 20 | 13 | 34 | 26 | 42 | 27 |