Recent Updates
- Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (Mar, Apr)
- US: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey by State (Mar)
- US: New Residential Construction (Apr)
- Canada: CPI (Apr)
- Japan: NCI Economic Activity Index (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
U.S. Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in May
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions dropped thirty-six points...
Surging Imports Send the EMU Trade Scene Deeper into Deficit
The trade balance for the Euro Area fell sharply to 17.5 billion euros in March...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
"Core" GDP Suggests Economy Gained Momentum in Q1:2022
by Robert Brusca February 26, 2020
French household confidence edged up to 104.4 in February from 103.7 in January. The index is moderately strong at that level with a percentile queue standing of 74.5%. Still, the status of the index and its momentum is unclear since the index has made a steep improvement after a steep decline and now it is leveling off it appears to be poised on brink of renewed erosion despite the month’s gain.
Living standards over the past and future 12-months both have been on an improving run. But living standards over the past 12-months currently have a percentile standings well above that expected over the next 12-months.
The expected unemployment rate is low and has fallen to the lower ten percentile of its queue of historic values.
The household sector sees little change in price assessments recently. Inflation expectations rose into late 2018 and have since subsided. Still, the rank standings show past inflation trends to have a much more moderate queue standing that expectations for the next 12 months that see a ranking of 72% compared to 33% on past trends.
Savings assessments show a weak environment in each to achieve savings contrasted with a strong reading on the ability to save expected over the next 12-months.
Households’ spending assessments for major purchases are being downgraded after being cut sharply then bouncing back. Since the spring-back assessments for spending have been weakening, however. The current standing at a 76.5 percentile is solid but it is fading.
The financial situation has been improving after bottoming in late 2018. Both the assessments of the past and future financial situations have been getting better. However, the past assessment at an 83 percentile standing is much stronger than the 12-month ahead assessment which stands at a 54 percentile standing barley above its historic median.
On balance the French households are showing a certain stability in their assessments and outlooks. But household assessments have been though some turbulence. After their drop and recovery they are on firmer footing but there still seems to be new erosion in their perception of conditions. As with anything these days what happens going ahead is going to depend on the evolution of events we can’t begin to fathom. This refers – most pressingly- to the evolution of the coronavirus, Brexit the US-China trade deal and the simple economic impact of all of those things. We are entering unfamiliar territory where the unknown is beginning to dominate the known.