Recent Updates
- Montenegro: PPI (Dec)
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Economy in Brief
Decline in Refinancing Drags Down U.S. Mortgage Applications
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index fell 1.9% w/w (+56.2% y/y) in the weekend January 15...
Euro Area Inflation Persists in Negative Territory
Euro area inflation is negative on a year-over-year basis for five months in a row...
U.S. Energy Prices Continue to Rise
The price of regular gasoline rose to $2.38 per gallon (-6.2% y/y)...
Macro Expectations Hold to the High Ground
In January, the ZEW index paints a mixed and somewhat uneven view of its survey universe...
U.S. Housing Affordability Improves During November
The NAR reported that its Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index rose 0.7% (-0.7% y/y)...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Robert Brusca February 25, 2020
The French business climate gauge moved up to 102.5 in February from 101.9 in January striking a 2.3 percentile standing just above its historic median. It is a reading slightly above ‘normal' and the highest mark reached since August of 2019, a half-year ago. The service sector gauge is moving up as well.
Manufacturing industrial production rose to 0.3 in February, it's first positive reading since September of last year. The February reading has a 59.5 percentile standing.
For production the recent trend has been fluctuating in value while the likely trend that firms view for their own industry has been improving steadily. The overall recent trend has only a 26 percentile standing while the own-trend has a much stronger 56 percentile standing.
Orders and demand have been slipping over the past two months but have firmed slightly on that trend. Foreign orders and demand are erratic but firmer on balance. Overall orders and demand have a 77th percentile standing while foreign orders and demand have a 54.6 percentile standing.
Inventories also have moved lower to a 10.6 percentile standing. That would seem to remove the risk of there being any inventory overhang.
The own likely price trend and the manufacturing price level each have been moving higher although the two series movements are mixed this month. The own likely price trend has a 55.9 percentile standing while manufacturing has a price level at a 43.2 percentile standing.
The outlook index has been very steady over the last three months; it has a 76 percentile standing.
Observed sales have been building momentum but expected sales have lost some. In terms of ranking the observed sales have a 92 percentile standing compared to the much weaker 65.6 percentile standing for expected sales.
Observed selling prices have been slightly firmer for the observed recent trend while expected sales prices have been mostly steady and flat. Observed selling prices are at an 83rd percentile standing compared to an expected sales standing in its 75.9 percentile.
The Employment situation has seen some strengthening for the observed and expected paths recently. For this metric the expected series is stronger with a 75.9 percentile standing compared to a 60.7 percentile standing for the observed trend.
The services and industrial surveys show a French economy that is operating above its normal or median marks on its key service sector metrics and operating at or above its median marks for most of, but not all, its manufacturing sector metrics. For the most part the survey seems to depict a well-functioning unexciting economy that is neither in danger of slipping into a weaker phase nor on the verge of acceleration.