Recent Updates
- China: International Trade (Mar)
- China: GDP (Q1)
- Euro area: CSPP Holdings Detail (Q1)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Fell Back in February, but Still in Recent Range
The NAR U.S. Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index decreased 7.6% (-1.4% y/y) in February to 173.1...
European New Car Registrations Remarkably Strong Yet Forgettable
Car registrations are not going to be the only statistic that bears these dual and seemingly dueling characteristics...
U.S. Retail Sales Soar in March
Total retail sales including food service and drinking establishments increased 9.8% (27.7% y/y) during March...
U.S. Industrial Production Rebounded in March
Industrial production rebounded in March, rising 1.4% m/m (+1.0% y/y)...
U.S. Home Builder Index Edges Higher in April
The NAHB-Wells Fargo Composite Housing Market Index rose 1.2% to 83 during April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller February 14, 2020
Total business inventories rose an expected 0.1% (2.2% y/y) during December following an unrevised 0.2% November decline. The expected figure is from the Informa Global Markets survey. At the same time, business sales fell 0.1% (+1.7% y/y) following a 0.5% jump. As a result, the inventory-to-sales ratio rose to 1.40. It has been moving sideways since the end of 2018.
Retail inventories were little changed (1.1% y/y) in December after a 0.9% decline. Motor vehicle dealers' inventories eased 0.1% in December (-0.3% y/y), down for the third straight month. Nonauto inventories held steady (1.9% y/y) after November's 0.3% decrease. Inventories of furniture & home furnishings fell 0.6% (+2.3% y/y) following a 1.0% decline. Clothing inventories were off 0.4% (-1.5% y/y), down for five straight months. General merchandise store inventories fell 0.6% (-0.8% y/y) while department store inventories weakened 2.4% (-7.3% y/y). Wholesale inventories edged 0.2% lower (+2.1% y/y) after two months of 0.1% rise. Factory sector inventories strengthened 0.5% (3.3% y/y) after a 0.3% increase.
Sales of retail stores (not including the food service sector) were unchanged in December (5.4% y/y) after rising 0.3% in November. Excluding auto dealers, retail sales improved 0.5% (6.0% y/y) after easing 0.1%. Wholesale sector sales declined 0.7% (+0.5% y/y) and reversed November's rise. Shipments from the factory sector increased 0.5% (-0.2% y/y) following their 0.3% November rise.
The inventory-to-sales ratio in the retail sector held steady at 1.43 in December, the lowest level since May 2015. The ratio for retailers excluding auto dealers eased to 1.18, down from the March 2016 high of 1.29. For merchant wholesalers, the I/S ratio was steady at 1.36 and for manufacturers, it was 1.40 for a fourth month.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
Manufacturing & Trade | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Inventories (% chg) | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 5.1 | 3.4 |
Retail | -0.0 | -0.9 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4.5 | 2.3 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.0 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
Merchant Wholesalers | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 7.3 | 3.3 |
Manufacturing | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
Business Sales (% chg) | |||||||
Total | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.2 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 6.1 | 5.4 |
Retail | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.5 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.8 |
Merchant Wholesalers | -0.7 | 0.9 | -0.9 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 6.7 | 6.7 |
Manufacturing | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 6.9 | 5.0 |
I/S Ratio | |||||||
Total | 1.40 | 1.39 | 1.40 | 1.39 | 1.40 | 1.36 | 1.38 |
Retail | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.45 | 1.49 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.47 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.23 | 1.19 | 1.20 | 1.24 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.37 | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.29 | 1.30 |
Manufacturing | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.35 | 1.38 | 1.35 | 1.37 |