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Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
U.S. Housing Starts Dip in April but Remain Elevated
The pattern of housing construction activity seems to be shifting toward multifamily...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Sandy Batten February 14, 2020
• Import prices were unchanged in January as a 2.2% m/m drop in fuel prices offset a modest rise in nonfuel prices.
• In contrast, export prices unexpectedly surged 0.7% m/m, the largest monthly increase since last March, led by a 2.0% m/m surge in agricultural prices.
Import prices were unchanged in January from December and were up 0.3% from a year earlier. The 0.3% m/m increase initially reported for December was revised down to 0.2%. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had looked for a 0.2% m/m decline in January. These figures are not seasonally adjusted and do not include import duties.
Prices of imported fuel fell 2.2% m/m (+11.3% y/y) in January, offsetting a 0.2% m/m (-0.9% y/y) rise in prices of nonfuel imports. This was only the second monthly increase in nonfuel prices in the past eleven months. Higher prices for finished goods (notably autos, 0.5% m/m)); nonfuel industrial supplies and materials (0.3% m/m); and foods, feeds, and beverages (0.5% m/m) all contributed to the January advance in nonfuel import prices.
Export prices increased 0.7% m/m (0.5% y/y), the largest increase since last March, following an unrevised 0.2% m/m decline in December. Forecasters had expected an unchanged reading for January. Prices of agricultural exports surged 2.0% m/m (3.1% y/y) after having fallen an unrevised 0.1% m/m in December. Rising prices for vegetables, soybeans, wheat, and corn in January more than offset lower prices for fruit, meat, and nuts. Prices of nonagricultural exports rose 0.7% (0.66% at two decimal places) in January and were up just 0.2% from a year ago. This is only the second monthly increase in the past nine months. In January, higher prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies and materials (1.1% m/m); finished goods (of which, autos were up 0.5% m/m); and nonagricultural foods (2.0% m/m) all contributed to the increase in nonagricultural export prices.
The price index for imports from China declined 0.2% m/m in January, after no change in December. The January decline was the largest drop since September; the index has not risen on a monthly basis since May 2018. Prices for exports to China increased 0.3% m/m in January, after having ticked up 0.1% m/m in each of the previous two months, but were down 0.2% from a year earlier.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Imports - All Commodities | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | -1.3 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
Fuels | -2.2 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 11.3 | -2.1 | 20.8 | 25.6 |
Nonfuels | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.9 | -1.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 |
Exports - All Commodities | 0.7 | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.5 | -0.8 | 3.4 | 2.4 |
Agricultural | 2.0 | -0.1 | 2.4 | 3.1 | -0.5 | 0.6 | 1.5 |
Nonagricultural | 0.7 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.2 | -0.9 | 3.7 | 2.5 |