The Consumer Price Index edged up minimally during January. The 0.1% uptick followed two months of 0.2% increase. A 0.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Despite the weak yearend showing, the 2.5% y/y gain in the CPI was the largest since October 2018. The CPI excluding food & energy rose an expected 0.2% last month (2.3% y/y) after edging 0.1% higher in December.

A 0.7% decline (+6.2% y/y) in energy prices held back the rise in the CPI. It followed three firm increases. Gasoline prices declined 1.6% (+12.8% y/y) following after a 3.1% strengthening. Fuel oil prices eased 0.4% (+6.5% y/y) after a 1.1% rise. Natural gas prices strengthened 1.0% (-3.2% y/y) after a 0.5% easing. The cost of electricity rose 0.4% (0.5% y/y).

Goods prices excluding food & energy also were tame, holding steady (-0.3% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Education & communication goods prices fell 1.2% (-6.4% y/y), the fourth sharp decline in the last five months. Used car & truck prices also were off 1.2% (-2.0% y/y). Household appliance prices weakened 0.8% (-2.1% y/y) after a 0.3% fall. Medical care product prices eased 0.6% (+1.7% y/y) following a 1.0% increase, and the cost of furniture slipped 0.1% (-0.0% y/y). New vehicle prices held steady (0.1% y/y). Working higher were apparel prices by 0.7% (-1.3% y/y) following a minimal rise in the prior month. Sporting goods prices rose 0.6% (0.8% y/y) as they reversed December's decline. Recreation goods improved 0.1% (-1.1% y/y) but video & audio equipment prices declined 0.9% (-10.8% y/y).

Services prices rose 0.3%. The 3.1% y/y increase was the strongest since July 2018, up from 2.7% early last year. Education & communication prices strengthened 0.4% (2.2 y/y), the largest rise since January 2014. Shelter costs also rose 0.4% (3.3% y/y) as rents increased 0.4% (3.8% y/y). The owners equivalent rent of primary residences gained 0.3% (3.4% y/y). Recreation services prices rose 0.3% (2.6% y/y) as video & audio services prices improved 0.4% (2.9% y/y). Medical care service prices rose 0.3% (5.1% y/y) for a second month while public transportation costs gained 0.2% (1.8% y/y).

Food prices rose 0.2% (1.8% y/y) for a second straight month. Meat prices increased 0.3% (3.4% y/y) after surging 1.2%, while dairy product prices improved 0.2% (2.7% y/y). Cereal & bakery product prices declined 0.4% (+0.3% y/y) following a 0.3% decline while fruit & vegetable prices eased 0.1% (-1.0% y/y). Egg prices declined 1.4% (-4.6% y/y). Nonalcoholic beverage prices rebounded 0.4% (0.6% y/y) after falling 0.2%.

The Consumer Price Index data can be found in Haver's USECON database with additional detail in CPIDATA. The Action Economics survey figure is in the AS1REPNA database.