The Congressional Budget Office projects that the U.S. government will run a deficit between 4.6% to 5.4% of GDP for the next ten years. The current budget picture already has worsened. The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $32.59 billion budget deficit during January compared to a $8.68 billion surplus twelve months earlier. An $11.5 billion surplus had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. For the first four months of this fiscal year, the budget deficit rose to $389.19 billion from $310.25 billion one year earlier.

So far this fiscal year, federal government receipts rose 6.1% y/y. Personal income tax revenues grew 5.5% y/y while corporate tax receipts improved 19.9% y/y. Social insurance taxes grew 5.5% y/y this fiscal year and customs duties, which include tariffs, jumped by 14.8% y/y.

In FY 2020, total federal government outlays have risen 10.3% y/y. Growth in Medicare outlays strengthened to 23.3% y/y so far this fiscal year, more than double last year's growth. Outlays on national defense programs grew 8.9% this fiscal year and have been growing at roughly that rate since early in 2019. Spending on Social Security increased 5.6% y/y during the first four months of FY 2020. Spending on income security programs grew 6.8% so far in FY 2020. Outlays on health programs grew 5.3% y/y in FY 2020 after a 6.1% y/y gain in FY 2019. Outlays on interest grew 1.7% so far this fiscal year after a 15.7% rise last year.

Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts as well as CBO forecasts are contained in USECON; detailed data can be found in the GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.

The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030 from the Congressional Budget Office is available here.