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Economy in Brief
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
U.S. Business Inventories Accumulate during November as Sales Weaken
Total business inventories increased 0.5% during November (-3.2% y/y)...
The EMU Trade Surplus Stabilizes
Both exports and imports have been regaining momentum...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller February 12, 2020
The Congressional Budget Office projects that the U.S. government will run a deficit between 4.6% to 5.4% of GDP for the next ten years. The current budget picture already has worsened. The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $32.59 billion budget deficit during January compared to a $8.68 billion surplus twelve months earlier. An $11.5 billion surplus had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. For the first four months of this fiscal year, the budget deficit rose to $389.19 billion from $310.25 billion one year earlier.
So far this fiscal year, federal government receipts rose 6.1% y/y. Personal income tax revenues grew 5.5% y/y while corporate tax receipts improved 19.9% y/y. Social insurance taxes grew 5.5% y/y this fiscal year and customs duties, which include tariffs, jumped by 14.8% y/y.
In FY 2020, total federal government outlays have risen 10.3% y/y. Growth in Medicare outlays strengthened to 23.3% y/y so far this fiscal year, more than double last year's growth. Outlays on national defense programs grew 8.9% this fiscal year and have been growing at roughly that rate since early in 2019. Spending on Social Security increased 5.6% y/y during the first four months of FY 2020. Spending on income security programs grew 6.8% so far in FY 2020. Outlays on health programs grew 5.3% y/y in FY 2020 after a 6.1% y/y gain in FY 2019. Outlays on interest grew 1.7% so far this fiscal year after a 15.7% rise last year.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts as well as CBO forecasts are contained in USECON; detailed data can be found in the GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2020 to 2030 from the Congressional Budget Office is available here.
United States Government Finance | January | FY'19 | FY'18 | FY'17 | FY'16 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Budget Balance (Billions) | -- | $-32.59 | $-984.39 | $-779.00 | $-665.80 | $-664.80 |
Fiscal YTD | -- | $-389.19 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | -4.6% | -3.8% | -3.5% | -3.2% |
% of Total | ||||||
Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2020, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
Individual Income Taxes | 50 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.3 |
Corporate Income Taxes | 7 | 19.9 | 5.4 | -22.4 | -2.0 | -11.4 |
Social Insurance Taxes | 36 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 4.7 |
Customs Duties | 2 | 14.8 | 71.4 | 19.4 | -0.8 | -0.6 |
Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2020, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.5 |
National Defense | 15 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 0.1 | 6.1 | 0.7 |
Health | 13 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 9.8 | -1.9 | 6.2 |
Medicare | 15 | 23.3 | 10.6 | -1.4 | 0.6 | 8.7 |
Income Security | 12 | 6.8 | 4.0 | -1.6 | -2.1 | 1.0 |
Social Security | 23 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 19.0 | 11.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 9.3 |
Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 3 | 4.2 | 43.8 | -34.0 | 31.6 | -10.2 |
Interest | 8 | 1.7 | 15.7 | 23.6 | 9.1 | 7.8 |