Recent Updates
- US: Treasury International Capital (Nov)
- Bulgaria: Foreign Trade (Oct), FDI Flows, BOP (Nov)
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- Ireland: Bank Lending Survey (Q1), Property Price Index (Nov)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Housing Affordability Improves During November
The NAR reported that its Fixed Rate Mortgage Housing Affordability Index rose 0.7% (-0.7% y/y)...
U.S. Retail Sales Continue to Fall During December as COVID-19 Cases Increase
Total retail sales declined 0.7% (+2.9% y/y) during December...
Empire State Manufacturing Index Declines in January
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions decreased to 3.5 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Continues Recovery
Industrial production advanced 1.6% in December...
U.S. PPI Rose 0.3% in December
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.3% (0.8% y/y) in December...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller February 4, 2020
Factory orders increased 1.8% (-0.4% y/y) during December following a 1.2% November decline, revised from -0.7% m/m. A 1.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Durable goods orders surged 2.4% (-3.6% y/y, the same as in the advance report issued last week. A surge in defense aircraft orders raised transportation sector orders by 7.9% (-8.2% y/y). Overall orders excluding transportation improved 0.6% (1.3% y/y). Computer & electronic product orders rose 0.7% (-1.0% y/y) but machinery orders declined 1.0% (-0.9% y/y). Furniture orders rose 0.5% (6.6% y/y).
In the nondurable goods sector, new orders (which equal shipments) strengthened 1.1% (2.9% y/y) as petroleum shipments increased 4.9% (9.9% y/y) with higher prices. Apparel shipments increased 2.6% (-1.3% y/y) but textile product shipments eased 0.5% (-6.7% y/y), off for the third straight month. Paper product shipments fell 0.4% (+0.3% y/y). In the durable goods sector, shipments eased 0.2% (-3.2% y/y), off for the sixth consecutive month. Computer & electronic equipment shipments eased 0.3% (+0.6% y/y) while electrical equipment appliance shipments rose 0.8% (4.0% y/y).
Unfilled orders in the factory sector were little changed (-2.2% y/y) in December. Backlogs of durable goods held steady and excluding transportation, unfilled orders eased slightly (-0.5% y/y) for the third month in the last four. Transportation equipment orders were unchanged (-3.0% y/y). Unfilled orders for machinery declined 0.4% (-3.8% y/y) while backlogs of electrical equipment & appliances held steady (5.3% y/y). Unfilled orders for computers & electronic products rose 0.1% (0.8% y/y).
Inventories in the factory sector strengthened 0.5% (3.3% y/y). Durable goods inventories rose 0.5% (4.8% y/y) as transportation equipment inventories gained 1.1% (14.7% y/y). Motor vehicle as well as aircraft inventories rose strongly y/y. Excluding transportation, inventories rose 0.3% (0.5% y/y). Computer & electronic product inventories gained 0.3% (1.3% y/y). but machinery inventories held steady (1.6% y/y). In the nondurable goods sector, inventories rose 0.5% (0.8% y/y). Petroleum refinery inventories surged 3.0% (9.4% y/y) for a second straight month. The gain was offset by a 1.7% decline (-2.9% y/y) in apparel inventories. Basic chemical inventories rose 0.1% (-0.6 y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectation figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Factory Sector (% chg) - NAICS Classification | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Orders | 1.8 | -1.2 | 0.2 | -0.4 | -0.5 | 7.3 | 5.7 |
Shipments | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 6.9 | 5.0 |
Unfilled Orders | -0.0 | -0.6 | 0.0 | -2.2 | -2.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 |
Inventories | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 4.5 |