Recent Updates
- Japan: Loans and Discounts Outstanding (Jan)
- Korea: Regional CPI (Feb)
- Korea: GDP (Q4), CPI (Feb)
- New Zealand: Tax Revenue and Receipts (Jan)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. ISM Services Index Weakens in February
The ISM Composite Index of Services Activity declined to 55.3 during February...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Edge Up
The MBA Mortgage Loan Applications Index edged up 0.5% w/w (5.4% y/y) in the week ended February 26...
Global PMIs Show Ongoing Struggle with Growth Global PMIs Show Ongoing Struggle with Growth
While manufacturing climbs higher, the services sector remains stuck...
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Weaken in February
Sales of light vehicles declined 5.6% during February (-6.7% y/y) to 15.88 million units...
U.S. Gasoline & Crude Oil Prices Continue to Strengthen
The price of regular gasoline strengthened to $2.71 per gallon (11.9% y/y) in the week ended March 1...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Gerald D. Cohen January 31, 2020
• Overall compensation increased 0.7% in Q4 (2.7% y/y), little changed from recent trends.
• Wages and salaries up 0.7% (2.9% y/y) while benefits gain 0.5% (2.2% y/y).
The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers rose 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2019, in line with expectations from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, and the same increase as Q3. Year-on-year growth of total compensation decelerated slightly to 2.7% in Q4. Compensation growth hit a cycle high of 2.9% in 2018Q4.
Wage and salaries also increased 0.7% in Q4 (2.9% y/y), a deceleration from the 0.9% gain in Q3. Year-on-year growth has been 2.9% for the entirety of 2019 after hitting a cycle high of 3.1% in 2018Q4. In contrast, benefits slowed to 0.5% (2.2% y/y), the softest year-on-year gain in two years.
Private sector compensation, wages and salaries, as well as benefits showed a similar pattern to all civilian workers (see table below for details). Compensation in both goods-producing and service-providing industries grew 0.6% in Q4 (3.0% and 2.7% y/y respectively). Overall pay for non-incentive paid occupations increased 0.4% (not seasonally adjusted) and 2.7% y/y, little changed from trends of the last two years (see lower left hand graph).
The employment cost index, which measures the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts among occupations and industries, is available in Haver's USECON database. Consensus estimates from the Action Economics survey are in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
Civilian Workers (% chg) | Q4'19 | Q3'19 | Q2'19 | Q4'19 Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Compensation | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 |
Wages & Salaries | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.5 |
Benefit Costs | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 2.4 |
Private Industry Workers (% chg) | |||||||
Compensation | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 |
Wages & Salaries | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.6 |
Benefit Costs | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 2.2 |