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Economy in Brief
U.S. PPI Posts Broad-Based Strength in March
The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.0% (4.2% y/y) during March...
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Total PMIs Gain Traction in March
The PMI readings for March show improvement again...
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Bounces Back in February
Consumer credit outstanding surged $27.6 billion during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally
Monetary Policy at a Crossroad: Policymakers Need to Break Promise of Easy Money to Avoid Boom-Bust
State Coincident Indexes in January
Data Surprises, Markets and COVID
by Tom Moeller January 29, 2020
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its Mortgage Loan Index increased 7.2% during the week of January 24 following a 1.2% dip in the prior week. Applications were two-thirds higher than one year earlier. Applications to refinance a loan rebounded 7.5% (145.9% y/y) and recovered the prior week's 1.8% decline. Purchase applications rose 5.3% (17.8% y/y) after a 2.0% fall.
The contract interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell last week to 3.81% from 3.87% and remained the lowest reading since November 2016. This rate is below its high of 5.17% reached early in November 2018. The contract rate on a 15-year fixed-rate loan edged lower to 3.24% from 3.25%. The contract rate on a 30-year Jumbo mortgage declined to 3.78% from 3.87%. The interest rate on an adjustable rate mortgage declined to 3.15%, the lowest level since September 2017.
The average mortgage loan size increased to $319,900 (2.2% y/y). The average loan size for purchases rose to $338,700 (8.0% y/y). The average loan size for refinancings was $307,500 (-1.4% y/y).
Applications for fixed-rate loans surged roughly three-quarters y/y while applications for adjustable rate loans gained 0.9% y/y`.
The survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for each index is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
MBA Mortgage Applications (%, SA) | 01/24/20 | 01/17/20 | 01/10/20 | Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Market Index | 7.2 | -1.2 | 30.2 | 67.2 | 32.4 | -10.4 | -17.8 |
Purchase | 5.3 | -2.0 | 15.5 | 17.8 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 5.6 |
Refinancing | 7.5 | -1.8 | 42.7 | 145.9 | 71.1 | -24.3 | -34.0 |
30-Year Mortgage Contract Interest Rate (%) | 3.81 | 3.87 | 3.87 | 4.75 (Jan'19) | 4.22 | 4.80 | 4.21 |