Recent Updates
- Japan: First 20 Days Trade, Bank of Japan's Transactions (Feb)
- India: Mutual Funds (Feb)
- New Zealand: Value of Building Work Put in Place by Region (Q4)
- New Zealand: Value of Building Work Put in Place (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise Just 9,000
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose modestly by 9,000 to 745,000 in the week ended February 27...
U.S. Productivity's Decline Lessened in Q4'20; Reverses Q3 Increase
Revisions to nonfarm business sector productivity indicated a 4.2% decline during Q4'20...
EMU Unemployment Rate Steadies in January
The overall EMU unemployment rate was steady in January, off peak, but still elevated...
U.S. ADP Nonfarm Private Payroll Increase Disappoints in February
Job market strength moderated last month....
U.S. ISM Services Index Weakens in February
The ISM Composite Index of Services Activity declined to 55.3 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller January 23, 2020
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 6,000 to 211,000 during the week ended January 18. Claims were unchanged y/y. The previous week's figure was revised to 205,000, from 204,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 212,000 initial claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims declined to 213,250, the lowest level since late September.
The latest initial claims figure covers the survey week for January nonfarm payrolls. Claims fell 24,000 (-10.2%) from the August period. During the last 20 years, there has been a 71% correlation between the level of initial claims and the y/y change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended January 11 declined 37,000 to 1.731 million (+1.4% y/y) from the prior week's 1.768 million, revised modestly from 1.767 million. The four-week moving average of claimants rose to 1.758 million, the highest level since May 2018.
The insured rate of unemployment was steady at 1.2%, where it has been since mid-November.
Insured unemployment rates continued to vary widely by state. During the week ending January 4, the lowest rates were in Florida (0.41%), North Carolina (0.48%), Nebraska (0.59%), Virginia (0.63%) and Arizona (0.64%). The highest rates were in Montana (2.59%), Rhode Island (2.60%), Connecticut (2.87%), New Jersey (3.00%) and Alaska (3.03%). Among the other largest states by population, the rate was 1.15% in Texas, 1.96% in New York and 2.06% in California. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims dating back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 01/18/20 | 01/11/20 | 01/04/20 | Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 211 | 205 | 214 | 0.0 | 218 | 220 | 244 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,731 | 1,768 | 1.4 | 1,700 | 1,756 | 1,961 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.2 |
1.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 |