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Economy in Brief
U.S. PPI Posts Broad-Based Strength in March
The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.0% (4.2% y/y) during March...
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Total PMIs Gain Traction in March
The PMI readings for March show improvement again...
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Bounces Back in February
Consumer credit outstanding surged $27.6 billion during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally
Monetary Policy at a Crossroad: Policymakers Need to Break Promise of Easy Money to Avoid Boom-Bust
State Coincident Indexes in January
Data Surprises, Markets and COVID
by Carol Stone, CBE January 22, 2020
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its Mortgage Loan Index decreased 1.2% in the January 17 week after the prior week's 30.2% jump; the modest fall in the latest week still left it 51.3% above a year ago. Applications to refinance a loan declined 1.8% w/w (116.3% y/y), following the prior week's 42.7% surge. Purchase applications were down 2.0% w/w (9.3% y/y) after the notable 15.5% advance the week before.
The effective interest rate on a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell in the latest week from 3.36% to 3.30% in a fourth consecutive weekly decline, yet again the lowest reading since November 2016. This rate has generally fallen from its recent high of 4.71% reached in early November 2018. The effective rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan edged lower to 3.95% from 3.96%. The effective rate on a 30-year Jumbo mortgage, however, edged higher to 3.93% from 3.90%. The interest rate on an adjustable rate mortgage eased to 3.38% after rising notably in the January 10 week to 3.39% from 3.26% the week before that.
The average mortgage loan size increased 0.4% to $317,400 (+0.9% y/y) after the previous week's 6.0% surge to $316,100. The average loan size for purchases rose 2.2% to $334,000 (+8.3% y/y). The average loan size for refinancings was $307,000, down 0.9% (-4.6% y/y) after the prior week's 9.0% surge to $309,700.
Applications for fixed-rate loans surged 57.5% y/y while applications for adjustable rate loans declined 16.8% y/y in the week ended January 17.
The survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for each index is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
MBA Mortgage Applications (%, SA) | 01/17/20 | 01/10/20 | 01/03/20 | Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Market Index | -1.2 | 30.2 | 13.5 | 51.3 | 32.4 | -10.4 | -17.8 |
Purchase | -2.0 | 15.5 | 3.0 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 5.6 |
Refinancing | -1.8 | 42.7 | 24.6 | 116.3 | 71.1 | -24.3 | -34.0 |
15-Year Mortgage Effective Interest Rate (%) | 3.30 | 3.36 | 3.42 | 4.26 (Jan'19) | 3.71 | 4.35 | 3.59 |