Recent Updates
- US: FHFA HPI (Nov), S&P Case Shiller HPI (Nov)
- US: Richmond Fed Manufacturing & Service Sector Survey, Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook (Jan)
- IMF: IMF World Economic Outlook (Jan 2021)
- Mexico: Service Sector, Retail & Wholesale Trade (Nov)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Texas Manufacturing Activity Weakens Further During January
The Dallas Fed reported that its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey General Business Activity Index fell to 7.0 during January...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves During December
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index increased to 0.52 during December...
German IFO Gauge Weakens Again
The IFO climate diffusion gauge fell to -0.6 in January...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Edge Up in December; 2020 Sales Are Highest Since 2006
The NAR reported that sales of existing homes rose 0.7% (22.2% y/y) during December...
Composite PMIs...the Best of Times; the Worst of Times-Really?
PMI data now rank observations on their range of values since December 2016...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller January 20, 2020
The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) increased 1.2% during the four weeks ended Friday and 3.8% over the last three months. The price index increased 1.1% y/y.
Prices in the Miscellaneous grouping increased 1.5% during the last four weeks but were little changed versus last year. In the Metals group, prices rose 1.7% over the last four weeks but fell 1.6% y/y. Zinc prices rose 4.0% in the last four weeks but fell 3.7% y/y. The price of lead gained 2.6% during the last four weeks (-0.8% y/y). Copper scrap prices increased 1.1% in last month and aluminum prices rose 0.9% m/m. The cost of steel scrap improved 0.6% in four weeks. Prices in the Textile grouping improved 1.3% in four weeks but fell 0.9% y/y. Cotton prices rose 6.3% m/m while burlap prices improved 3.5% in four weeks (-3.1% y/y). Working lower were prices in the Crude Oil & Benzene group which eased 0.6% during the last four weeks as WTI crude oil prices declined to $58.40 per barrel on Friday. Moving the other way, prices of the petro-chemical benzene rose 3.8% in the last four weeks (44.8% y/y).
The recent improvement in industrial commodity prices accompanied a 0.2% rise (-1.3% y/y) in U.S. factory output during December. It followed a 1.0% increase. The consensus forecast from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) calls for a modest 0.9% rise in factory sector output this year. During the last ten years, there has been a 71% correlation between the y/y change in industrial commodity prices and the y/y change in factory sector output.
Commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases. The NABE forecast is in the SURVEYS database.
FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index (%) | 1-Mth | 3-Mth | 6-Mth | 12-Mth | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
All Items | 1.2 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | -12.0 | 6.7 |
Textiles | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | -0.9 | -1.6 | -2.8 | 3.0 |
Cotton (cents per pound) | 6.3 | 8.3 | 17.8 | -3.5 | -6.6 | -9.2 | 9.8 |
Metals | 1.7 | 4.4 | -0.8 | -1.6 | -4.3 | -12.2 | 18.6 |
Aluminum ($ per metric ton) | 0.9 | 3.8 | -2.2 | -1.8 | -6.5 | -12.7 | 26.0 |
Copper Scrap (cents per pound) | 1.1 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.5 | -16.1 | 29.3 |
Steel Scrap ($ per ton) | 0.6 | 24.7 | 0.2 | 5.4 | -0.8 | 2.3 | 16.8 |
Crude Oil & Benzene | -0.6 | 4.9 | 0.2 | 12.3 | 20.2 | -20.0 | 8.1 |
Crude Oil (WTI, $ per Barrel) | -3.6 | 9.1 | 1.1 | 12.6 | 35.5 | -24.4 | 10.9 |
Miscellaneous | 1.5 | 3.9 | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.0 | -14.8 | -0.5 |
Framing Lumber ($ per 1000 board ft.) | 0.0 | 7.5 | 11.1 | 22.6 | 22.6 | -23.1 | 20.0 |
Natural Rubber (cents per pound) | 1.1 | 13.2 | -6.1 | 4.4 | 10.7 | -4.1 | -29.6 |