Recent Updates
- US: FHFA HPI (Nov), S&P Case Shiller HPI (Nov)
- US: Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook (Jan)
- IMF: IMF World Economic Outlook (Jan 2021)
- Mexico: Service Sector, Retail & Wholesale Trade (Nov)
- Israel: Exports of Services (Nov)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves During December
The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index increased to 0.52 during December...
German IFO Gauge Weakens Again
The IFO climate diffusion gauge fell to -0.6 in January...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Edge Up in December; 2020 Sales Are Highest Since 2006
The NAR reported that sales of existing homes rose 0.7% (22.2% y/y) during December...
Composite PMIs...the Best of Times; the Worst of Times-Really?
PMI data now rank observations on their range of values since December 2016...
U.S. Housing Starts Rise Again in December
Housing starts increased 5.8% (5.2% y/y) during December to 1.669 million...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Carol Stone, CBE January 16, 2020
A month ago, the headline here was the exact opposite: "Inventories Rise While Sales Slip." So that October condition reversed in November: total business inventories decreased 0.2% (2.8% y/y) after October's 0.1% rise, as November sales rebounded 0.7% (1.0% y/y) after falling 0.2% in October. The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio edged down to 1.39 from the 1.40 that had held since May.
Retail inventories dropped 0.8% (2.3% y/y) in November after two modest monthly increases of 0.1%. Motor vehicle dealers' stocks declined 1.8% in November (0.6% y/y) after a 0.7% decrease in October. Nonauto inventories also decreased in November, edging 0.2% lower (3.3% y/y) after October's 0.5% increase. Inventories of furniture & home furnishings fell 0.6% (0.3% y/y) following a jump of 1.2% in October. Clothing inventories edged down 0.2% (unchanged y/y); they have fallen 0.2%-0.3% for the last four months. General merchandise store inventories fell 0.3% (-0.9% y/y) for a second month; that included a 1.6% drop in department store stocks. Wholesale inventories edged down 0.1% (+3.3% y/y), reversing October's 0.1% increase. Factory sector inventories rose 0.3% (2.7% y/y) in November after a 0.2% increase.
Sales of retail stores (not including the food service sector) were up 0.4% in November (3.1% y/y), a second such monthly increase, which was repeated in December. Excluding auto dealers, retail sales edged up just 0.1% (2.1% y/y) in November after a 0.2% rise. Wholesale sector sales gained 1.5% (0.8% y/y), rebounding after their October drop of 0.9%. Shipments from the factory sector increased 0.3% (-0.8% y/y) following their slim 0.1% October rise.
The inventory-to-sales ratio in the retail sector declined to 1.43 in November from 1.45; the 1.43 is the lowest since a similar ratio in May 2015. The ratio for retailers excluding auto dealers was 1.19 for a third consecutive month. That for wholesalers was 1.35, down from 1.37. And among manufacturers, it was 1.40 for a third month.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
Manufacturing & Trade | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Inventories (% chg) | -0.2 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.7 |
Retail | -0.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 4.0 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | -0.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Merchant Wholesalers | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.7 | 3.3 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.9 |
Manufacturing | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 4.5 | -0.7 |
Business Sales (% chg) | |||||||
Total | 0.7 | -0.2 | -0.4 | 1.0 | 6.1 | 5.4 | -0.8 |
Retail | 0.4 | 0.4 | -0.6 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.4 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.1 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 2.1 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.5 | -0.9 | -0.1 | 0.8 | 6.5 | 6.7 | -1.3 |
Manufacturing | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.4 | -0.8 | 6.9 | 5.0 | -3.2 |
I/S Ratio | |||||||
Total | 1.39 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.42 |
Retail | 1.43 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.44 | 1.45 | 1.47 | 1.49 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.17 | 1.20 | 1.24 | 1.28 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.32 | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.35 |
Manufacturing | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.41 |