The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) increased 1.7% during the four weeks ended Friday and 3.9% over the last three months. The price index increased 0.8% y/y.

Prices in the crude oil & benzene group rose 2.7% during the last four weeks as WTI crude oil prices strengthened to $61.86 per barrel on Friday. Prices of the petro-chemical benzene also rose 4.8% in the last four weeks (44.2% y/y). Metals prices increased 1.8% over four weeks as the cost of steel scrap improved 2.8% and the price of copper scrap also rose 1.8%. Zinc prices rose 5.7% over four weeks (-6.3% y/y) and lead prices improved 0.4% m/m (-2.0% y/y). Aluminum prices moved 1.3% higher in the last four weeks. Prices in the miscellaneous group improved 1.4% over four weeks as the cost of natural rubber gained 1.5%. The price of framing lumber eased 0.3% but plywood costs held steady over four weeks (-11.0% y/y). Prices in the textile group increased 1.3% during the last month. Cotton prices rose 6.7% and burlap prices improved 2.7% (-4.1% y/y).

The recent improvement in industrial commodity prices followed a 1.1% rise (-0.9% y/y) in U.S. factory output during November, which had declined in three of the prior four months. The consensus forecast from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) calls for a modest 0.9% rise in factory sector output this year. During the last ten years, there has been a 71% correlation between the y/y change in industrial commodity prices and the y/y change in factory sector output.

Commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases. The NABE forecast is in the SURVEYS database.