The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) increased 2.6% during the four weeks ended Friday and 3.6% over the last three months. The price index increased 1.4% y/y. The 1.1% rise last year made up just a piece of the 12.0% drop in 2018.

Prices in the crude oil & benzene group rose 4.8% during the last four weeks as WTI crude oil prices strengthened to $61.92 per barrel on Friday. Prices were roughly one-third higher y/y. Prices of the petro-chemical benzene also strengthened 7.9% in the last four weeks (45.7% y/y). Metals prices increased 2.8% over four weeks as the cost of copper scrap rose 5.8% and steel scrap gained 5.6%. Zinc prices rose 1.5% in four weeks (-7.9% y/y) and lead prices improved 0.5% m/m (-3.6% y/y). Aluminum prices edged 0.4% higher in the last four weeks. Prices in the miscellaneous group improved 2.2% over four weeks as the cost of natural rubber gained 2.3%. The price of framing lumber rose 0.5% but plywood costs held steady in four weeks (-10.5% y/y). Prices in the textile group increased 1.6% during the last month. Cotton prices rose 7.8% and burlap prices improved 3.3% (-4.1% y/y).

The recent improvement in industrial commodity prices followed a 1.1% rise (-0.9% y/y) in U.S. factory output during November, which had declined in three of the prior four months. The consensus forecast from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) calls for a modest 0.9% rise in factory sector output this year. During the last ten years, there has been a 71% correlation between the y/y change in industrial commodity prices and the y/y change in factory sector output.

Commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases. The NABE forecast is in the SURVEYS database.