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- Japan: Japan: CPI, Government Bond Trading Volume by Category of Investors (Apr)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
U.S. Housing Starts Dip in April but Remain Elevated
The pattern of housing construction activity seems to be shifting toward multifamily...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Carol Stone, CBE December 30, 2019
U.S. pending home sales rose 1.2% (+7.4% y/y) in November, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR) after falling 1.3% in October. October was revised from a 1.7% drop. The November index level of sales was 108.5 (2001=100).
Sales were modestly mixed around the country during November. They gained in the Midwest and the West while they eased in the Northeast and the South. The West was the strongest, up 5.5% (+14.0% y/y), turning around from a 1.9% decline in October. In the Midwest, sales rose 1.0% (+5.0% y/y) after decreasing 2.6% in October. The November decreases in the Northeast and the South were quite small, actually, 0.1% in the Northeast (+2.6% y/y) after rising 2.7% the month before, and 0.2% in the South (+7.7% y/y), following a decline of 1.7% the prior month, which was unrevised.
With this latest report, it can be seen that all four regions recovered from a weak period in late-2018 and early-2019, but have been fairly range-bound across the rest of this year.
The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the sale of an existing home is signed, analogous to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is a month or two later. Accordingly, in developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity precedes the level of closed existing home sales by one to two months. The series dates back to 2001, and the data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database. Mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the SURVEYW database and from the Wall Street Journal compilation in USECON.
Pending Home Sales (SA, 2001=100) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total | 108.5 | 107.2 | 108.6 | 7.4 | 104.7 | 109.1 | 109.8 |
Northeast | 96.3 | 96.4 | 93.9 | 2.6 | 92.4 | 97.1 | 96.4 |
Midwest | 102.5 | 101.5 | 104.2 | 5.0 | 100.2 | 104.9 | 107.4 |
South | 125.0 | 125.3 | 127.5 | 7.7 | 121.6 | 123.9 | 123.0 |
West | 98.4 | 93.3 | 95.1 | 14.0 | 92.3 | 99.5 | 102.3 |