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Economy in Brief

State Coincident Indexes
by Charles Steindel  December 27, 2019

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's estimates of state coincident activity for November continue to show some divergence in activity across the nation. Over the last 12 months, only 27 states report increases in their index in the 2 to 4 percent range, the lowest number in that mid-range in some time. 7 states, all more or less mid-sized, saw growth higher than 4 percent with Utah's gain of a bit more than 6 percent the largest. Texas, California, and Florida all had increases above 3 percent, but New York ranked 38th, with a gain just above 1 ½ percent. No state saw a decline; Oklahoma was lowest, with an increase less than ½ percent. Although in general Western states (except for Alaska and Hawaii) saw larger gains than those in the East, there were high and low growth states in all areas to the east.

Over the three months ending in November 21 states had gains of less than .5 percent, with 7 outright declines. Delaware and West Virginia again reported the largest declines, and Pennsylvania was also down. 12 states had gains above 1 percent in this period, including California and Florida. As was the case in October's initial report, both Utah and South Carolina had 3-month increases greater than 2 percent.

In another repeat of October (but with the order reversed), South Carolina and Utah led in the one-month gains from October to November, while 10 states, including Pennsylvania and New Jersey registered declines. Michigan's .52 percent increase, obviously reflective of the end of the GM strike, was fifth.

In general, the November report was very similar to October's, despite stronger job growth. The coincident indexes are so constructed that the weight of a sharp move, up or down, is downplayed.

Viewpoint commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
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