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- Japan: Japan: CPI, Government Bond Trading Volume by Category of Investors (Apr)
- New Zealand: Overseas Merchandise Trade, Trade by Country by Commodity (Apr)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
U.S. Housing Starts Dip in April but Remain Elevated
The pattern of housing construction activity seems to be shifting toward multifamily...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller December 20, 2019
Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.4% (3.9% y/y) during November after an unrevised 0.3% October gain. The increase compared to a 0.4% rise expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. In constant dollars, spending increased 0.3% ( 2.4% y/y), the strongest rise in four months. Real durable goods spending rose 1.2% (4.8% y/y) and reversed October's 1.0% decline. Spending on motor vehicles rose 2.3% (1.9% y/y) while recreational goods & vehicles outlays rose 1.1% (10.5% y/y. Real nondurable goods buying increased 0.1% (2.4% y/y) after a 0.3% gain. Apparel spending eased 0.3% (+1.5% y/y). Real spending on services rose 0.2% (2.0% y/y) for the fifth straight month. Health care spending rose 0.4% (3.6% y/y) but spending at restaurants fell 0.3% (+2.0% y/y).
Personal income strengthened 0.5% last month following a 0.1% uptick in October, revised from 0.0%. A 0.3% rise was expected. Wages & salaries improved 0.4% (5.3% y/y) after a 0.5% increase. Proprietors income rebounded 1.9% (5.6% y/y) and recovered the October decline. Rental incomes rose a steady 0.5% (3.0% y/y), and receipts on assets rebounded 0.8% (1.4% y/y) due to a 1.4% rise (0.2% y/y) in interest income. Transfer receipts edged 0.1% higher (7.5% y/y), the weakest increase in 12 months.
Disposable personal income rose 0.5% (4.6% y/y) after holding steady in October. Adjusted for price inflation, take-home pay increased 0.4% (3.1% y/y) and reversed October's 0.2% decline.
Last month's strength in income relative to the gain in spending raised the personal savings rate to 7.9% from 7.8%. The level of personal saving rose 14.3% y/y last month.
The PCE chain price index increased 0.2% (1.5% y/y), the same as in October. The price index excluding food & energy edged 0.1% higher (1.6% y/y) for the fourth straight month. Energy prices increased 0.8% (-0.7% y/y) after a 2.8% gain. Food prices held steady (0.9%) for the second month in the last three.
The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON database with detail in the USNA database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database
Personal Income & Outlays (%) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Personal Income | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.6 |
Wages & Salaries | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.9 |
Disposable Personal Income | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 2.8 |
Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 3.8 |
Personal Saving Rate | 7.9 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 7.2 (Nov '18) | 7.7 | 7.0 | 6.8 |
PCE Chain Price Index | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
Less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
Real Disposable Income | 0.4 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.8 |
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.7 |