Recent Updates
- US: Existing Home Sales (Mar)
- US: FRB Chicago National Activity Index (Mar), Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey (Apr)
- Canada: Employment Insurance (Feb)
- Morocco: CPI (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Leading Indicators Rebounded in March
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators rebounded in March, rising 1.3% m/m (+7.9% y/y)...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Increases in March
The Chicago Fed's National Activity Index increased to 1.71 during March...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Strengthens in April
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index rose to a record 31 in April...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Fall Again to a New Pandemic-Period Low
Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased again in the week ending April 17, reaching 547,000...
U.K. CBI Optimism Speaks Volumes
The U.K. CBI survey saw its order component backtrack in April...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 17, 2019
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total job openings rate rose to 4.6% during October from an unrevised 4.4% in September. It remained, nevertheless, below the 4.8% record in January. The job openings rate is the job openings level as a percent of total employment plus the job openings level. The ability to find workers to fill openings weakened as the hiring rate fell to 3.8% from 3.9%. It has been moving sideways since early last year. Employers became less inclined to let workers go. The layoff & discharge rate fell m/m to 1.2% and reversed the prior month's increase. Individuals were ready to seek new positions as the quits rate held m/m at 2.3% and has been trending higher for ten years.
The private-sector job openings rate rose m/m to 4.8%, but remained below the high of 5.2% twelve months earlier. In professional & business services, the rate fell sharply to 5.2% and remained below January's 6.5% high. In leisure & hospitality, the rate fell to 5.4% and remained down versus December's high of 6.2%. In education & health services, the rate increased to 5.0%, but also remained below earlier highs. In trade, transportation & utilities, the rate increased to 5.0%, a nine-month high. The openings rate fell to 4.0% in the construction sector and remained below the record 5.5% reached in April. In manufacturing, the rate improved slightly to 3.6%. The government sector job openings rate edged higher to 3.2% and remained well above the 2009 low of 1.2%.
The level of job openings rebounded m/m by 3.3% (-4.3% y/y) but has been declining since January's high. It remained near the lowest level since March of last year. Private-sector openings fell 6.2% y/y, but government sector job openings increased 16.8% y/y.
Hiring activity weakened in October. The private-sector hiring rate slipped to 4.2% and remained below July's expansion high of 4.4%. The rate in leisure & hospitality dropped sharply to 6.5%, its lowest level since February. In professional & business services, the hiring rate fell sharply to 5.3% and remained below the June 2017 high of 6.1%. The construction sector's hiring rate strengthened m/m to 6.4%. The hiring rate in trade, transportation & utilities fell to `3.9% and in education & health services the rate held steady at 2.9%. In manufacturing, the hiring rate eased to 2.5%, but remained below the July 2018 high of 3.1%. The hiring rate in government was unchanged at 1.6%.
Total hiring declined 3.1% (-1.9% y/y) after a 1.1% September rise. Hiring in the private sector fell 3.5% (-2.0% y/y). Government sector hiring rose 2.0%, but was unchanged y/y.
Individuals became less ready to find new work. The overall job separations rate fell to 3.7%, just below the expansion high. The private sector separations rate fell to 4.1%. The separations rate in government rose slightly to 1.6%.
The total level of separations slipped 0.1% y/y as private sector separations eased 0.2% y/y. The decline reflected a 2.8% y/y drop in professional & business services separations and separations in trade, transportation & utilities fell 11.0% y/y. Separations in manufacturing fell 11.1% y/y and reversed September's rise. In educational and health services, separations rose 0.3% y/y. Separations in leisure & hospitality rose 1.6% y/y. The construction sector saw a one-third y/y increase in separations. Separations in the government sector rose 1.4% y/y.
Confidence in finding work improved last month. The level of quits rose modestly after two months of decline and they remained up 1.2% y/y. The quits rate held steady m/m at 2.3%, and was sharply higher versus 1.3% at the beginning of the expansion. The private-sector quits rate rose to 2.6% and has increased from 1.4% since the fall of 2009. The government sector quits rate of 0.8% held steady m/m, but was double the rate at the beginning of the economic expansion.
The level of layoffs reversed its earlier monthly increases and fell 4.6% y/y. In the private sector, layoffs declined 4.9% y/y as the layoff rate retreated to 1.3%. It remained below the 2009 high of 2.2%. Layoffs declined 1.6% y/y in the government sector and the layoff rate was 0.5%.
The Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) dates to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct'18 | Oct'17 | Oct'16 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Job Openings, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 3.7 |
Total (000s) | 7,267 | 7,032 | 7,301 | 7,593 | 6,405 | 5,616 |
Hires, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.6 |
Total (000s) | 5,764 | 5,951 | 5,884 | 5,877 | 5,587 | 5,177 |
Layoffs & Discharges, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
Total (000s) | 1,769 | 1,971 | 1,812 | 1,855 | 1,803 | 1,637 |
Quits, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
Total (000s) | 3,512 | 3,471 | 3,601 | 3,469 | 3,209 | 3,105 |