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Economy in Brief
U.S. Current Account Deficit Deepens to Record in Q1'22
The U.S. current account deficit deepened to $291.4 billion during Q1'22...
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Declines Further in June But Remains Positive
The Kansas City Fed reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index fell to 12 in June...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Edged Down
Initial claims for unemployment insurance filed in the week ended June 18 declined by 2,000 to 229,000...
U.S. Energy Prices Reverse Earlier Gains
Retail gasoline prices surged to $5.01 per gallon (63.1% y/y)...
S&P Global Flash PMIs Weaken -Except for Japan
The S&P Global PMI indexes weakened across the board in June...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 17, 2019
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total job openings rate rose to 4.6% during October from an unrevised 4.4% in September. It remained, nevertheless, below the 4.8% record in January. The job openings rate is the job openings level as a percent of total employment plus the job openings level. The ability to find workers to fill openings weakened as the hiring rate fell to 3.8% from 3.9%. It has been moving sideways since early last year. Employers became less inclined to let workers go. The layoff & discharge rate fell m/m to 1.2% and reversed the prior month's increase. Individuals were ready to seek new positions as the quits rate held m/m at 2.3% and has been trending higher for ten years.
The private-sector job openings rate rose m/m to 4.8%, but remained below the high of 5.2% twelve months earlier. In professional & business services, the rate fell sharply to 5.2% and remained below January's 6.5% high. In leisure & hospitality, the rate fell to 5.4% and remained down versus December's high of 6.2%. In education & health services, the rate increased to 5.0%, but also remained below earlier highs. In trade, transportation & utilities, the rate increased to 5.0%, a nine-month high. The openings rate fell to 4.0% in the construction sector and remained below the record 5.5% reached in April. In manufacturing, the rate improved slightly to 3.6%. The government sector job openings rate edged higher to 3.2% and remained well above the 2009 low of 1.2%.
The level of job openings rebounded m/m by 3.3% (-4.3% y/y) but has been declining since January's high. It remained near the lowest level since March of last year. Private-sector openings fell 6.2% y/y, but government sector job openings increased 16.8% y/y.
Hiring activity weakened in October. The private-sector hiring rate slipped to 4.2% and remained below July's expansion high of 4.4%. The rate in leisure & hospitality dropped sharply to 6.5%, its lowest level since February. In professional & business services, the hiring rate fell sharply to 5.3% and remained below the June 2017 high of 6.1%. The construction sector's hiring rate strengthened m/m to 6.4%. The hiring rate in trade, transportation & utilities fell to `3.9% and in education & health services the rate held steady at 2.9%. In manufacturing, the hiring rate eased to 2.5%, but remained below the July 2018 high of 3.1%. The hiring rate in government was unchanged at 1.6%.
Total hiring declined 3.1% (-1.9% y/y) after a 1.1% September rise. Hiring in the private sector fell 3.5% (-2.0% y/y). Government sector hiring rose 2.0%, but was unchanged y/y.
Individuals became less ready to find new work. The overall job separations rate fell to 3.7%, just below the expansion high. The private sector separations rate fell to 4.1%. The separations rate in government rose slightly to 1.6%.
The total level of separations slipped 0.1% y/y as private sector separations eased 0.2% y/y. The decline reflected a 2.8% y/y drop in professional & business services separations and separations in trade, transportation & utilities fell 11.0% y/y. Separations in manufacturing fell 11.1% y/y and reversed September's rise. In educational and health services, separations rose 0.3% y/y. Separations in leisure & hospitality rose 1.6% y/y. The construction sector saw a one-third y/y increase in separations. Separations in the government sector rose 1.4% y/y.
Confidence in finding work improved last month. The level of quits rose modestly after two months of decline and they remained up 1.2% y/y. The quits rate held steady m/m at 2.3%, and was sharply higher versus 1.3% at the beginning of the expansion. The private-sector quits rate rose to 2.6% and has increased from 1.4% since the fall of 2009. The government sector quits rate of 0.8% held steady m/m, but was double the rate at the beginning of the economic expansion.
The level of layoffs reversed its earlier monthly increases and fell 4.6% y/y. In the private sector, layoffs declined 4.9% y/y as the layoff rate retreated to 1.3%. It remained below the 2009 high of 2.2%. Layoffs declined 1.6% y/y in the government sector and the layoff rate was 0.5%.
The Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) dates to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct'18 | Oct'17 | Oct'16 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Job Openings, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 3.7 |
Total (000s) | 7,267 | 7,032 | 7,301 | 7,593 | 6,405 | 5,616 |
Hires, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.6 |
Total (000s) | 5,764 | 5,951 | 5,884 | 5,877 | 5,587 | 5,177 |
Layoffs & Discharges, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 |
Total (000s) | 1,769 | 1,971 | 1,812 | 1,855 | 1,803 | 1,637 |
Quits, Total | ||||||
Rate (%) | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
Total (000s) | 3,512 | 3,471 | 3,601 | 3,469 | 3,209 | 3,105 |