Recent Updates
- Japan: Japan: CPI, Government Bond Trading Volume by Category of Investors (Apr)
- New Zealand: Overseas Merchandise Trade (Apr)
- UK: Consumer Confidence Barometer (May)
- UK Regional: Regional Consumer Confidence Barometer (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Index of Leading Indicators Fell in April
Five of the index's components fell in April, one was unchanged and four increased...
U.S. Unemployment Claims Rose in the Latest Week
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary widely...
U.S. Housing Starts Dip in April but Remain Elevated
The pattern of housing construction activity seems to be shifting toward multifamily...
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Sandy Batten December 17, 2019
Industrial production rebounded in November, rising 1.1% m/m (-0.8% y/y) after having fallen a downwardly revised 0.9% m/m in October and 0.4% m/m in September. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had looked for a 0.8% m/m rise. Manufacturing output also rose 1.1% m/m (-0.9% y/y) in November after declines in both October and September with cooler weather boosting utilities output 2.9% m/m (-4.1% y/y) after a 2.4% m/m decline in October. Mining output fell 0.2% m/m (+2.0% y/y) in November for its fourth decline in the past five months.
The November rebound in overall production was led by the revival of motor vehicle production as the strike at General Motors was resolved. Motor vehicle production jumped up 20.2% y/y in November after declines of 9.3% m/m in October and 8.8% m/m in September. But even excluding the rebound in motor vehicle output, other production was stronger in November. Manufacturing output excluding motor vehicles rose 0.3% m/m after having declined 0.3% m/m in both October and September.
Output of final products surged 1.8% m/m after a 0.8% m/m decline in October and a 0.7% m/m drop in September. Consumer goods production rose even more, increasing 2.1% m/m in November, more than offsetting the 0.8% m/m decline in October and the 0.6% m/m drop in September. Business equipment output was also strong, rising 1.7% m/m in November following monthly declines in both October and September. Construction supplies production also rose in November, but only 0.2% m/m, falling far short of offsetting declines in both October and September. Materials production rose 0.7% m/m in November with production of both energy and nonenergy materials rebounding.
In the special aggregate groupings, high-tech production continued to climb, rising 1.7% m/m in November, led by a 2.6% m/m jump in the production of computers and peripheral equipment. Factory output excluding high-tech production rose a solid 1.1% m/m in November while production excluding high-tech and motor vehicles increased a more modest 0.2% m/m but this rise came after declines in both October and September.
The total industry capacity utilization rate increased more than expected to 77.3%, its first increase in three months, from 76.6%. It has been trending down since later 2018. The October reading was the lowest in two years. The factory sector utilization rate also rose in November, to 75.2% from 74.5%, which was the lowest reading since March 2017.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in Haver's USECON database. Additional detail on production and capacity can be found in the IP database. The expectations figures come from the AS1REPNA database.
Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Output | 1.1 | -0.9 | -0.4 | -0.8 | 3.9 | 2.3 | -2.0 |
Manufacturing | 1.1 | -0.7 | -0.7 | -0.9 | 2.3 | 2.0 | -0.8 |
Consumer Goods | 2.1 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -1.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.6 |
Business Equipment | 1.7 | -0.8 | -1.2 | -1.5 | 3.2 | 3.6 | -5.3 |
Construction Supplies | 0.2 | -0.5 | -0.3 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 0.9 |
Materials | 0.7 | -1.1 | -0.3 | -0.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | -3.0 |
Utilities | 2.9 | -2.4 | 1.4 | -4.1 | 4.4 | -0.8 | -0.4 |
Mining | -0.2 | -0.8 | -0.3 | 2.0 | 12.4 | 7.4 | -9.9 |
Capacity Utilization (%) | 77.3 | 76.6 | 77.4 | 79.6 | 78.7 | 76.5 | 75.0 |
Manufacturing | 75.2 | 74.5 | 75.1 | 76.9 | 76.6 | 75.1 | 74.2 |