Recent Updates
- Australia: International Trade by State (Dec-Prelim)
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Economy in Brief
Composite PMIs...the Best of Times; the Worst of Times-Really?
PMI data now rank observations on their range of values since December 2016...
U.S. Housing Starts Rise Again in December
Housing starts increased 5.8% (5.2% y/y) during December to 1.669 million...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Jumps in January
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Factory Sector Business Conditions Index jumped to January to 26.5...
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Ease, but Are Still High
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 900,000 in the week ended January 16...
French Surveys Improve Despite Ongoing Virus Issues
The spread of the virus in Franc is still untamed...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 13, 2019
Total business inventories increased 0.2% (3.1% y/y) during October following a 0.1% September dip, revised from 0.0%. Total business sales eased 0.1% both m/m and y/y after a 0.4% September decline, revised from -0.2%. The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio held steady at 1.40 for the sixth consecutive month.
Retail inventories rose 0.3% (3.1% y/y) in October after a 0.1% uptick. Auto inventories declined 1.3% both m/m and y/y while nonauto inventories strengthened 0.7% (2.8% y/y). Inventories of furniture & home furnishings increased 1.8% (-3.5% y/y) following several months of decline. Clothing inventories eased 0.2% (-0.5% y/y) after falling 0.5%. General merchandise store inventories fell 0.2% (-0.9% y/y) after a 0.4% rise while department store inventories eased 0.2% (-7.4% y/y) after rising 0.5%. Wholesale inventories rose 0.1% (3.8% y/y) in October after falling 0.7%. Factory sector inventories improved 0.1% (2.4% y/y) after a 0.3% rise.
Retail sales increased 0.5% (3.0% y/y) in October and mostly reversed the September decline. Sales excluding autos rose 0.4% (2.4% y/y) and also reversed September's fall. Wholesale sector sales fell 0.7% (-1.4% y/y) after easing 0.1%, while shipments from the factory sector held steady (-1.5% y/y).
The inventory-to-sales ratio in the retail sector was unchanged at 1.45, but has been mostly falling since early this year. The non-auto retail I/S ratio also held steady at 1.19, and nearly matched its all-time low. The wholesale I/S ratio rose to 1.37 from 1.36 while the manufacturing I/S ratio held at 1.40.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
Manufacturing & Trade | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Inventories (% chg) | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.7 |
Retail | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 4.0 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.7 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 0.1 | -0.7 | 0.1 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.9 |
Manufacturing | 0.1 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 4.5 | -0.7 |
Business Sales (% chg) | |||||||
Total | -0.1 | -0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 6.1 | 5.4 | -0.8 |
Retail | 0.5 | -0.6 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.4 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 |
Merchant Wholesalers | -0.7 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -1.4 | 6.5 | 6.7 | -1.3 |
Manufacturing | 0.0 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -1.5 | 6.9 | 5.0 | -3.2 |
I/S Ratio | |||||||
Total | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.42 |
Retail | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.47 | 1.49 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1.20 | 1.24 | 1.28 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.35 |
Manufacturing | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.39 | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.41 |