Recent Updates
- US: Wholesale Trade (Feb), Producer Prices (Mar)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Commodity Detail (Mar)
- US: Producer Price Indexes by Industry Detail (Mar)
- Canada: Investment in Building Construction (Feb), Labor Force Survey (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Total PMIs Gain Traction in March
The PMI readings for March show improvement again...
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Bounces Back in February
Consumer credit outstanding surged $27.6 billion during February...
U.S. Trade Deficit Widens to Record during February
The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $71.1 during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 13, 2019
Total business inventories increased 0.2% (3.1% y/y) during October following a 0.1% September dip, revised from 0.0%. Total business sales eased 0.1% both m/m and y/y after a 0.4% September decline, revised from -0.2%. The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio held steady at 1.40 for the sixth consecutive month.
Retail inventories rose 0.3% (3.1% y/y) in October after a 0.1% uptick. Auto inventories declined 1.3% both m/m and y/y while nonauto inventories strengthened 0.7% (2.8% y/y). Inventories of furniture & home furnishings increased 1.8% (-3.5% y/y) following several months of decline. Clothing inventories eased 0.2% (-0.5% y/y) after falling 0.5%. General merchandise store inventories fell 0.2% (-0.9% y/y) after a 0.4% rise while department store inventories eased 0.2% (-7.4% y/y) after rising 0.5%. Wholesale inventories rose 0.1% (3.8% y/y) in October after falling 0.7%. Factory sector inventories improved 0.1% (2.4% y/y) after a 0.3% rise.
Retail sales increased 0.5% (3.0% y/y) in October and mostly reversed the September decline. Sales excluding autos rose 0.4% (2.4% y/y) and also reversed September's fall. Wholesale sector sales fell 0.7% (-1.4% y/y) after easing 0.1%, while shipments from the factory sector held steady (-1.5% y/y).
The inventory-to-sales ratio in the retail sector was unchanged at 1.45, but has been mostly falling since early this year. The non-auto retail I/S ratio also held steady at 1.19, and nearly matched its all-time low. The wholesale I/S ratio rose to 1.37 from 1.36 while the manufacturing I/S ratio held at 1.40.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
Manufacturing & Trade | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Inventories (% chg) | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.7 |
Retail | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 4.0 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.7 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 0.1 | -0.7 | 0.1 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.9 |
Manufacturing | 0.1 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 4.5 | -0.7 |
Business Sales (% chg) | |||||||
Total | -0.1 | -0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 6.1 | 5.4 | -0.8 |
Retail | 0.5 | -0.6 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.4 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 |
Merchant Wholesalers | -0.7 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -1.4 | 6.5 | 6.7 | -1.3 |
Manufacturing | 0.0 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -1.5 | 6.9 | 5.0 | -3.2 |
I/S Ratio | |||||||
Total | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.42 |
Retail | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.47 | 1.49 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1.20 | 1.24 | 1.28 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.35 |
Manufacturing | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.39 | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.41 |