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Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
by Tom Moeller December 13, 2019
Total business inventories increased 0.2% (3.1% y/y) during October following a 0.1% September dip, revised from 0.0%. Total business sales eased 0.1% both m/m and y/y after a 0.4% September decline, revised from -0.2%. The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio held steady at 1.40 for the sixth consecutive month.
Retail inventories rose 0.3% (3.1% y/y) in October after a 0.1% uptick. Auto inventories declined 1.3% both m/m and y/y while nonauto inventories strengthened 0.7% (2.8% y/y). Inventories of furniture & home furnishings increased 1.8% (-3.5% y/y) following several months of decline. Clothing inventories eased 0.2% (-0.5% y/y) after falling 0.5%. General merchandise store inventories fell 0.2% (-0.9% y/y) after a 0.4% rise while department store inventories eased 0.2% (-7.4% y/y) after rising 0.5%. Wholesale inventories rose 0.1% (3.8% y/y) in October after falling 0.7%. Factory sector inventories improved 0.1% (2.4% y/y) after a 0.3% rise.
Retail sales increased 0.5% (3.0% y/y) in October and mostly reversed the September decline. Sales excluding autos rose 0.4% (2.4% y/y) and also reversed September's fall. Wholesale sector sales fell 0.7% (-1.4% y/y) after easing 0.1%, while shipments from the factory sector held steady (-1.5% y/y).
The inventory-to-sales ratio in the retail sector was unchanged at 1.45, but has been mostly falling since early this year. The non-auto retail I/S ratio also held steady at 1.19, and nearly matched its all-time low. The wholesale I/S ratio rose to 1.37 from 1.36 while the manufacturing I/S ratio held at 1.40.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
Manufacturing & Trade | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Business Inventories (% chg) | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.7 |
Retail | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 4.0 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.7 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 0.1 | -0.7 | 0.1 | 3.8 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.9 |
Manufacturing | 0.1 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 4.5 | -0.7 |
Business Sales (% chg) | |||||||
Total | -0.1 | -0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 6.1 | 5.4 | -0.8 |
Retail | 0.5 | -0.6 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.4 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.4 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 |
Merchant Wholesalers | -0.7 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -1.4 | 6.5 | 6.7 | -1.3 |
Manufacturing | 0.0 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -1.5 | 6.9 | 5.0 | -3.2 |
I/S Ratio | |||||||
Total | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.42 |
Retail | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.47 | 1.49 |
Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1.20 | 1.24 | 1.28 |
Merchant Wholesalers | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.30 | 1.29 | 1.30 | 1.35 |
Manufacturing | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.39 | 1.34 | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1.41 |