Recent Updates
- Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (Mar, Apr)
- US: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey by State (Mar)
- US: New Residential Construction (Apr)
- Canada: CPI (Apr)
- Japan: NCI Economic Activity Index (May)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continued to Slide Amid Higher Rates
The biggest declines have been in refinancing activity, while applications for purchase are just starting to crack...
UK Inflation Jumps
Inflation is at the highest rate since the series began in January of 1989...
U.S. Industrial Production Much Stronger than Expected in April
The increase in manufacturing output in April was once again led by motor vehicle and parts production...
U.S. Retail Sales Posted Solid Rise in April
Notwithstanding falling real incomes and declining confidence measures, consumer spending posted a solid increase...
U.S. Home Builder Index Took a Steep Drop in May
This is the fifth straight month that builder sentiment has declined...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Profits and Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation & Fed Policy: A Relationship Which Should Worry The Fed And Scare Investors
Why Have the Yields on TIPS Been Negative in the Past Two Years?
by Tom Moeller December 13, 2019
Total retail sales increased 0.2% (3.3% y/y) during November following a 0.4% October gain, revised from 0.3%. A 0.5% November rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles & parts edged 0.1% higher (3.0% y/y) last month after rising 0.3% in October. Expectations had been for a 0.4% improvement.
A 0.6% decline (-3.3% y/y) in apparel store sales held back the overall sales increase. It was the third decline in the last four months. Sporting goods, hobby, book & music shop store sales also were weak and fell 0.5% (+3.4% y/y) following a 0.1% dip. Finally, sales at building & garden equipment stores held steady (0.4% y/y) after falling in all but one of the prior six months. Offsetting these weaknesses, sales via the internet rose 0.8% (11.5% y/y) after a 0.6 rise. Electronics & appliance store sales also were firm and rose 0.7% (-1.5% y/y) after falling 0.8% in October. Motor vehicle & parts dealerships sales improved 0.5% during November (4.9% y/y) after increasing 1.0% in October. General merchandise store sales rose 0.1% (-0.1% y/y) but department store sales fell 0.6% (-7.2% y/y), down in most every month this year. Sales at furniture & home furnishing stores also rose 0.1% (1.9% y/y) after a 0.7% decline.
Gasoline service station sales improved 0.7% (0.5% y/y) after a 1.7% rise, even though gasoline prices fell 0.7% last month.
Health & personal care store sales posted a 1.1% decline (-0.4 y/y) after rising 0.5% in October. Food & beverage store sales improved 0.3% (2.9% y/y) following a 0.2% rise.
Eating out became less in vogue of late as food & drinking establishment sales fell 0.3% (+5.1% y/y) after edging 0.1% lower in October.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
Retail Spending (% chg) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.2 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 3.0 |
Excluding Autos | 0.1 | 0.3 | -0.2 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 4.6 | 2.6 |
Retail Sales | 0.3 | 0.5 | -0.6 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 2.7 |
Retail Less Autos | 0.2 | 0.4 | -0.4 | 2.6 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
Motor Vehicle & Parts | 0.5 | 1.0 | -1.1 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 4.4 |
Gasoline Stations | 0.7 | 1.7 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 12.9 | 8.2 | -5.7 |
Food Service & Drinking Places Sales | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.8 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 |