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Economy in Brief
U.S. PPI Posts Broad-Based Strength in March
The Producer Price Index for final demand jumped 1.0% (4.2% y/y) during March...
U.S. Wholesale Inventories Post Strong February Gain; Sales Fall
Wholesale inventories increased 0.6% (2.0% y/y) during February...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Increase
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 744,000 during the week ended April 3...
Total PMIs Gain Traction in March
The PMI readings for March show improvement again...
U.S. Consumer Credit Outstanding Bounces Back in February
Consumer credit outstanding surged $27.6 billion during February...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
Monetary Policy Blunder: Not Managing Economic & Financial Outcomes Equally
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State Coincident Indexes in January
Data Surprises, Markets and COVID
by Tom Moeller December 12, 2019
The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged during November (1.1% y/y) following a 0.4% October rise. A 0.2% gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Producer prices excluding food & energy declined 0.2% last month (+1.3% y/y) after rising 0.3%. A 0.1% uptick had been expected. The PPI excluding food, beverages and trade services, another measure of underlying price inflation, held steady last month (1.3% y/y) after a 0.1% October gain.
Food prices jumped 1.1% (3.2% y/y) and added to a 1.3% October increase. Higher prices for beef & veal led the increase as they surged 5.4% (4.8% y/y), and dairy product costs improved 1.6% (7.7% y/y). A 4.1% weakening (+4.6% y/y) in fruit & melon prices tempered that increase while bakery product prices rose 0.4% (0.7% y/y).
Final demand energy prices rose 0.6% (-4.0% y/y) as gasoline prices increased 2.3% (-3.7% y/y) and natural gas prices rose 0.5% (1.8% y/y). Offsetting these increases was a 1.1% decline (-15.1% y/y) in the cost of heating oil and the cost of electric power fell 0.6% (+1.5% y/y).
Finished consumer goods prices less food & energy rose 0.2% (1.6% y/y) after a 0.1% uptick. Core nondurable goods prices increased 0.3% (2.0% y/y) and durable product prices improved a minimal 0.1% (0.9% y/y). Passenger car prices rose 0.1% (0.4% y/y) and light truck costs rose 0.5% (-0.6% y/y). Appliance prices held steady (3.3% y/y). Private capital equipment prices rose 0.1% (1.5% y/y).
Services prices for final demand declined 0.3% (+1.4% y/y) and reversed October's increase. Trade services prices fell 0.6% (+1.4% y/y) owing to a 0.7% weakening (+1.2% y/y) in the cost of finished goods trade. Transportation & warehousing prices rose 0.4% (0.2% y/y) but excluding these costs, prices declined 0.1% (+1.7% y/y).
The cost of construction held steady (3.7% y/y) last month following a 0.4% jump. Private construction prices held steady (3.6% y/y) but public construction costs eased 0.1% (3.8% y/y).
Intermediate product prices rose 0.2% (-2.9% y/y) as materials & component prices for manufacturing were off 0.2% (-3.6% y/y).
The PPI data can be found in Haver's USECON database. Further detail can be found in PPI and PPIR. The expectations figures are available in the AS1REPNA database.
Producer Price Index (SA, %) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Final Demand | 0.0 | 0.4 | -0.3 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.4 |
Excluding Food & Energy | -0.2 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 |
Excluding Food, Energy & Trade Services | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
Goods | 0.3 | 0.7 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 3.4 | 3.3 | -1.4 |
Foods | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 3.2 | 0.2 | 1.2 | -2.8 |
Energy | 0.6 | 2.8 | -2.5 | -4.0 | 10.2 | 10.4 | -8.4 |
Goods Excluding Food & Energy | 0.2 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
Services | -0.3 | 0.3 | -0.2 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.4 |
Trade Services | -0.6 | 0.8 | -1.0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Construction | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
Intermediate Demand - Processed Goods | 0.2 | 0.4 | -0.4 | -2.9 | 5.3 | 4.7 | -3.1 |